Stat of the Day, 9th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th August 2013

I suppose one of the beauties about compiling a daily blog is that there's always a chance of redemption around the corner! I've not had a great week so far, but you've all been too kind to say anything (or you've all switched off!), but today offers another swift opportunity to get back amongst the winners.

Duke of Destiny went the same way as quite a few of my recent selections: started brightly enough, chased the leaders, made a challenge 2f out and weakened in the final furlong. That was once again the case yesterday as we could only manage a well-beaten (11 lengths or so) 5th of 6 runners at 2/1 favouritism.

Such results are both unprofitable and boringly frustrating, but we try again with a spin around the All-Weather this afternoon. The race in question is a 6 furlong, Class 6 handicap and nine runners are scheduled to contest the...

3.20 Lingfield

Trainer Geoffrey Deacon is hardly a household name and with a career record of just 8 wins from 143 races (5.6%) and a level stakes loss of 46.75pts (-32.7% ROI), you'd be excused for thinking I'd lost the plot even talking about him.

But, his record away from National Hunt racing is better than those bare stats where six of those eight runners have come from 74 races. At 8.1%, it's still not a great record, but it has to be noted that all six winners came in A/W races.

Those 6 A/W winners came from just 50 races, improving the strike rate to 12%, but still showing a loss of 5.82pts. I have disregarded the 17 runners priced over 12/1, which all lost, giving Mr Deacon a 6/33 (18.2% S/R) record for 11.2pts (+33.9% ROI) in A/W races with horses priced under 12/1. Incidentally all six winners came from 31 handicap races.

Geoffrey has only ever had a runner in eight races on the Lingfield A/W track, but a return of 31321140 is pretty impressive, with that 3/8 record producing 18.8pts profit. All three winners ran in handicaps here and were priced at 12/1 or under in a record that reads 313211, yielding 20.8pts profit from just six races.

So, all we need now is a horse running in an A/W handicap priced at 12/1 or under and trained by Geoffrey Deacon!

Step forward Victorian Number, the yard's only runner today and one who has been in decent nick of late over at Kempton's A/W track. This 5yr old should come here fresh after a break of just over seven weeks, after a run of making frame on four successive occasions at Kempton (3112) with wins over today's 6f trip and also at 7f. He seemed to only just get that 7f trip when winning on 7th May and didn't quite see out the mile last time out, when beaten into 2nd place by a length and a half having led inside the final furlong.

He will be ridden by George Baker today, who has a record of 121 here at Lingfield when riding for Geoffrey Deacon, with winners at 8/1 and 5/4.

If he acts as well on this surface, then I feel that the drop back to 6 furlongs should play to his strengths and despite a 2lb rise in the weights for that last run, I fancy him to be involved in the shake-up this afternoon. So much so, that today's advice is a 1pt win bet on Victorian Number at odds of 11/4 BOG with BetVictor. Only Bet365 also had a market on this race, when I was writing this up (1.20am!), so you'd be well advised to...

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9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th August 2013

  1. Ravi

    Dear Matt,

    Based on previous run RPR’s, “Victorian Number” comes into this race streaks ahead. The bad for VN is the draw, 9 of 9 in a 6 furlong contest could be the making or breaking of the SOD today. Other positive factors is obviously jockey, current form, official rating and seeing that previous winners have won from around the 56,57,58 OR region, This makes SOD a serious contender.

    The favourite though (Reginald Claude) based on most previous stats is definitely the horse to beat, a previous course and distance winner and a 7 pound claimer. However given that, something inside me screams Hinton Admiral. Given the age status of previous winners, the last 3 being 10/4/7 with 10 being the 2012 winner and given that Hinton Admiral is going on 9 and has top form at this track, I would be tempted to back all 3 mentioned, albeit slight preference for the Admiral as the current market quotes the gelding at 51.

    The other placings could be filled by either, Chester Deelyte, Purford Green and Copper Leyf

    Regards
    Ravi

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I’ve a feeling that 1 of the 6 you highlighted might win. 😀
      Unfortunately my piece has to be slightly more specific and stats-based.

      Chris

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Indeed, mate: well done. Hinton’s record over C&D would have made him an E/W selection for SotD, had Mr Deacon not been represented here.

  2. RonCombo

    Well done Chris, bang on again! And you know what, I really quite miss Daily Dabble. I feel sure that it would have come good sooner or later. Hey ho.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers Ron, and 11/4 about a 6/4 fav can’t be sniffed at either. Both Matt and myself believed there was something in the Daily Dabble, but neither of us could quite get it right with any consistency. No doubt that we’ll attempt to come up with a replacement soon.

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