Stat of the Day, 8th September 2016

Wednesday's Result :

2.30 Doncaster : Mutawatheb @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Led, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length attempting to concede 11lbs to the winner!)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.25 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

So Celebre at 4/1 BOG

Why?

In the last days, both today's jockey and trainer have been in decent form, with Jim Crowley riding 26 winners from 110 (23.6% SR) on the Flat for profits of 28pts (+25.5% ROI) and he now has a rare booking for Ian Williams, who has also been amongst the winners of late with a 5 from 25 (20% SR) record in handicaps in the same time frame, that has yielded 10.04pts at an ROI of 40.16%.

They team up with So Celebre, who also has been running well and is a qualifier for my "Ted Rogers" micro-system. Basically I'm looking for horses on the Flat with a form line reading 321! These horses are clearly improving as they go and providing they haven't peaked, they're a good bet to go in again, as since the start of the 2014 campaign, such runners are 66/297 (22.2% SR) for 95.8pts (+32.3% ROI).

Of those 297 runners, we can also highlight the following data of interest today...

  • those running within 45 days of that LTO win are 59/247 (23.9%) for 88.4pts (+35.8%)
  • 2/3 yr olds are 49/189 (25.9%) for 106.9pts (+56.6%)
  • and over trips of 7 to 12 furlongs : 44/178 (24.7%) for 93.7pts (+52.7%)

...and if you wanted to combine the subsets, I suggest a focus is placed on 2/3 yr olds running 1-45dslr over 7f to 1m2.5f, as these are 21/72 (29.2%) for 52.7pts +73.2%) with sub-5/1 runners scoring on 17 of 39 occasions (+43.6%) for profits of 23.9pts (+61.2%)

And after the trainer, the jockey and the horse's stats, how about his father? The sire is Peintre Celebre, whose offspring have been profitable to follow for a while now and over the last 500 days, they have won 32 of 214 (14.95% SR) for 42.6pts (+19.9% ROI) profit, with those running in Flat (turf) contests winning 18 of 127 (14.2%) for 44.8pts (+35.2%).

Of those 127 runners on the Flat...

  • 6-60 dslr = 17/99 (17.2%) for 67pts (+67.7%)
  • in hcps : 16/90 (17.8%) for 41.7pys (+46.3%)
  • over 9.5 to 10.5 furlongs : 6/42 (14.3%) for 19.4pts (+46.1%)
  • on good ground : 6/41 (14.6%) for 45.4pts (+110.7%)

...directing me to...a 1pt win bet on So Celebre at 4/1 BOG with any/all of Betfair Sports, Paddy Power and/or SkyBet who headed the market at 7.40pm on Wednesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Epsom.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 8th September 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. £1.58 at Paddy, £1.25 at BFSB (Sky into 7/2 now)…you’d think they’d let you have a couple of quid at those odds lol.
    Paul

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