Stat of the Day, 8th October 2016

Friday's Result :

9.10 Newcastle : Rich Again @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Towards rear, ridden over 1f out, ran on, not reach leaders)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.20 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gulliver at 11/4 BOG

Why?

You can tell what kind of form the Hugo Palmer string is in when he can have an off day on a busy Friday with no winners, yet still boast figures of 9 winners from 33 over the last fortnight.

He also fares well here at York with 5 of his 32 (15.6% SR) runners tasting success here so far and a £20 level stake on each of them has made a profit of £514 (+80.2% ROI), with those running on today's forecasted good ground winning 4 of 18 (22.2%) for 33.3pts (+185.2%).

He sends just one here today, our pick Gulliver, who returns from a break of 149 days since a creditable third place on this very track last time out. He was outsprinted late on over 6 furlongs and should appreciate the extra yardage here today.

The selection is also backed up by the fact that Mr Palmer's runners returning from breaks of 90 to 300 days are 20 from 86 (23.3% SR) for 128.2pts (+149.1% ROI) level stakes profits, with the following of relevance/interest today...

  • males are 13/48 (27.1%) for 94.7pts (+197.4%)
  • over the 2015/16 period : 15/48 (31.25%) for 59.2pts (+123.4%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 11/41 (26.8%) for 91.1pts (+222.3%)
  • in maidens : 7/22 (31.8%) for 74pts (+336.3%)
  • over 7 furlongs : 6/18 (33.3%) for 55.1pts (+306.3%)
  • at Class 3 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 20.2pts (+252.7%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 2.22pts (+37%)

AND... from this we get : 2015-16/ males / non-hcps = 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 31.4pts (+209.6% SR) with a 3/7 record in maidens, a 3/4 return over 7f and 2yr olds are 2 from 3.

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Gulliver at 11/4 BOG, from any of Bet365 (my preferred option), Betbright and/or Hills, who led the way at 8.10pm on Friday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 York.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th October 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Paid out at 9/2 by those nice chaps at 365. The only downside is that the last time that happened with SotD (one of Matt’s selections) Ladbrokes restricted me soon after. Another week of profit if you’re BOG or BOG+.
    Paul

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