Stat of the Day, 8th October 2014
On a day to forget, where pretty much everything I backed ran poorly, it was no great surprise to see Blue Army fade out of contention on the home straight at Kempton.
He was eventually beaten into 4th place a little over 6 lengths behind the winner and the only highlight of the race was the fact that we took 4/1 about a 6/4 favourite, which is always a source of optimism. If you continue to beat the book, you will make profit. I'm sure you're sick of me saying it now!
Anyway, onto Wednesday, where my selection runs in the...
Where you can currently get 11/4 BOG about Dan Skelton's new recruit, the 7 yr old chaser What A Warrior , who looks well placed to add another winner to this fledgling trainer's scoresheet.
Dan's relatively new to training, but he has made an impact already...
And since his first handicap runner a little over a year ago (29/08/13), he's already hitting a strike rate approaching 22% in NH handicap contests. This is thanks to his 30 winners from just 138 runners, who have in turn, netted level stakes profits of 44.1pts at an ROI of 32% to date.
In chases (like today!) the record reads 22 winners from 83 (26.5% SR) for 29.8pts profit (+35.9% ROI), whilst today's jockey Harry Skelton has ridden 125 of those runners, winning 26 times (20.8% SR) for profits of 36.5pts , or 29.2% of stakes invested.
These figures aren't skewed by a handful of big winners either, as his handicappers in the 2/1 to 12/1 bracket have won 21 of 102 (20.6% SR) races for profits of 57.6pts (+56.5% ROI) with the similarly-priced chasers winning 15 of 61 (24.6% SR) for 34.3pts (+53.6% ROI)
After 27 career starts, it's a yard debut for What A Warrior...
Dan Skelton does well with horses making their yard debut, with an 11/68 (16.2% SR) record to date which has generated 21.1pts (+31.1% ROI) level stakes profits. And with horses aged 5 to years old, the figures read 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 40.3pts (+103.4% ROI).
With yard debutants who have already raced at least five times before moving to Dan's yard, the Skelton team have notched up 7 winners from 25 (28% SR) for profits of 24.6pts at an ROI of 98.5%.
He has done particularly well with chasers on their yard debut with 8 winners from 126 yielding 33.6pts (+210.3% ROI) profit, and not one of them was priced longer than 12/1, so no oddball result artificially raising the profits. His 7yr old chasers are 4/6 for 22.5pts on yard debut, which is extremely impressive, despite being a very small sample size. Nevertheless, it's a profitable angle and gives us a little added confidence.
What A Warrior performed well in the past for the Twiston-Davies yard in the past and now comes here for a fresh challenge hoping to be revitalised. He hasn't run since being pulled up over this course and distance almost 6 months ago, but if he can regain some of his past form, he looks very well treated here today.
He's a proven Class 2 (and better!) chaser now dropping back to Class 3 racing and running off a mark of just 122, which could very well be exploited considering he won here at Ludlow off 135 last year and was only half a length behind Al Co in second place off 134 in a decent Class 2 handicap chase at Chepstow, before going on to finish third in a Listed race at Ascot just before Christmas.
He, admittedly, went off the boil in the spring and it was felt that he'd benefit from a switch to a new yard, known for breathing fresh life to older horses. A tongue tie is in place today and I'd expect him to be fully involved running fresh after his break.
On past form, he not only fits the stats, but is the best in the race and so I have no hesitation in recommending a 1pt win bet on What A Warrior at 11/4 BOG. I've gone with the Betfair Sportsbook for my bet, but you can get the same price in at least three other places, as you'll see when you...
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