Stat of the Day, 8th October 2012

Stat of the Day 08/10

Stat of the Day 08/10

Stat of the Day, 8th October 2012

A poor show from Worth A Kings yesterday, I'm afraid. He made a mistake at the 4th fence and that was pretty much game over for us. he dropped to the rear of the pack and stayed there. 3 of the 10 runners were pulled up and our horse only beat one other home. There wasn't even any joy for the traders amongst you, as  he drifted from my advised 14/1 to an SP of 20/1.

It's the usual Monday morning warning today ie poor quality racing etc etc, but we're heading to Berkshire to visit the UK's only flat racing figure-of-8 track. It's another tea-time assignment for SotD today, as we take on a 12-runner Class 4 Handicap over a mile on soft ground. To you and me though, it's the...

5.20 Windsor

There's expected to be plenty of give in the ground at Windsor today judging by the official going report declaring it as Soft. The are also further showers expected during the course of the day, so by the time we get around to the 5.20 race it may well have cut up quite a bit, which will hopefully play into the hands of our selection for today: Myboyalfie.

I've gone with Myboyalfie today, partly due to recent form and also because of his ability to handle testing conditions: experience that may well prove vital today.

Myboyalfie has certainly given his connections a good run for their money in handicaps recently having been in the first three home in each of his last 5 handicaps in a form line reading 31132. The two wins came in Class 5 events and one was on heavy ground and the other on soft ground. He has stepped up to Class 4 recently and also proved his versatility at this level. A second place finish last time out on heavy ground further backed his credentials on testing ground, whilst two third place runs (one on A/W and one on Good to Firm) show he's a decent turn of foot on faster ground too.

Yet despite remaining in such decent form, he is still only rated at 1lb above the mark off which he won at Chepstow in June (heavy). He will certainly relish these conditions today and I'd expect him to give another good account of himself today.

I expected the early price to be around the 4/1 mark if I'm honest (perhaps I've read it wrong) and an eventual SP of around 7/2, but a look at the early market shows Myboyalfie to generally be a 6/1 BOG chance, whilst Corals go 13/2 non-BOG. for the sake of half a point, I suggest a BOG bookmaker, in the event of a drift in the market.

And so, as it's Monday and we've a better price than I expected, I'm going to err on the side of caution and I'm staking 0.5pts E/W on Myboyalfie at 6/1 BOG. My logic here is that he wins, I'll make 3.75pts profit which still exceeds the 7/2 I was expecting, but I then have the safety net of the place bet which would still generate a small (25%) profit on the day.

But as always I recommend that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.20 Windsor.

19 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th October 2012

  1. Stu

    My god Chris I hadn’t been on the Internet all day and feared I’d missed your information. I logged on at 5:11 and thought it must be an omen that your tip was in the 5:20 🙂 many thanks for an excellent tip

  2. Johnny5

    Great winner Chris – ‘pillar to post’ winner … Good pick based on ground conditions that were going to have for some while !

    I fancied the favourite but your ‘intelligentsia’ swung my stakes … But the 26/1 forecast made for a ‘grand’ day all in

    Much appreciated !!

  3. Chris A

    Great selection Chris, comfortable winner pulling away further at the end and at 6-1, great price too.

    Hopefully the start of another great week.

    Cheers, Chris A

  4. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Great pick Chris – made even better when I doubled my stake with a free bet Sky gave me.Glad I used it today. Never in doubt, left them all mud splattered !!!

    Regards

  5. Martin

    Chris your write ups are so good i dont even mind if the selection loses. Brilliant stuff today ,even taking into account the weather forecast !Thanks again Martin

  6. Ian Gill

    Just started to follow Chris and very impressed with your 10mth return. Hoping October continues and isnt the wrong time to start following! Brilliant tip today and keep up the good work, Cheers

  7. Chris

    Missed the tip today as flat out in work but noticed the Scottish boogie ran and won in the next race 2 which was a previous stod that I set to watch cos it was coming up at the end. Brillent as usual.

  8. Tony Deakin (@Deakers68)

    Fabulous work Chris, watched the race in the bookies prior to meeting the Mrs for dinner and a show. Your insight paid for the night out! Thank you (yet again)

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