Stat of the Day, 8th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th November 2012

A decent run but no return on investment from Aegean Destiny, who was very well backed in to 8/1 from an early price of 14's. She eventually finished eight lengths back in sixth.

Today we have a classic SotD type in the…

3.00 Musselburgh

Kate Walton is one of those trainers who know how to place a horse to win, and her overall stats with decent priced types are good.

Here at Musselburgh, Mrs Walton is nine from 48, for a profit of 47.75 units.

Some of that profit has been provided by Everaard, a course specialist whose form at the track reads 13111. Three of his four wins were over today's trip of three miles and a half furlong, and he's done all his winning on goodish ground.

His last two wins were in this class - Class 3 - and his last hurdle win was off a mark of 107, so today's perch of 105 should be fine.

Everaard was only beaten fifteen lengths when eighth of twelve last time, and he's a horse whose past form suggests he needs a couple of runs to get him fit. This being his third start of a layoff, then, looks ideal.

He's currently a best priced 12/1 with Ladbrokes, or 11/1 BOG with bet365, and I recommend you wager each way.

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Musselburgh

36 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th November 2012

  1. Atholl Blair

    You talk too fast. Leave it until after 12pm to post these messages. Then you’ll have a chance of publishing the right price. At this time it’s no man’s land!

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      I have to post content when I can, Atholl, I’m afraid. I have a (very young) family which means I can’t always get in first thing in the morning, and I want to try and get ahead of the game each day.

      As you can see here, there was actually a bit of 16/1 available very early… http://odds.geegeez.co.uk/horse-racing/2012-11-08/musselburgh/15-00/betting/

      Matt

      p.s. if you’re following me on twitter – @mattbisogno – a tweet is sent as soon as the post goes up. That’s the easiest way to follow in real time.

  2. Atholl Blair

    You can kill a market by 8pm at night Matt.

    Hallelujah.

    What you posted is no good to anyone.

    Why not just post them in the morning, at 11am, when everyone has priced up and then everyone would have a shot at the best prices?

    I know you’ve got a young family, but you still stay up until 4am watching crap on the TV a lot of days so it’s not that much of a burden.

    Does WordPress not let you schedule posts??? 🙂

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      The horse is still 11/1 BOG with Paddy Power. I can schedule posts, no problem at all, but I can’t schedule the available odds!

      Fact is, you’re assuming it’s this piece which kills the price. I’m only highlighting what are generally standout facts about a certain horse in a certain race. The price goes because other people cotton on to it early too. The price on these horses will generally not last, irrespective of when I post.

      Matt

  3. Atholl Blair

    Everard is now 10/1 with PaddyPower and they’ll accept a grand total of £0.34 on in singles. They might stretch to a quid if you double them up with a non-runner here or there.

    It’s already 9/1 with Betfair and the commission kills that to 8/1.

    Do everyone a favour and just wait until the markets open. Whether it’s you that’s doing it or not, make it fair on everyone by at least offering a bit of that 16/1 that’s now 8/1 or less.

  4. Dunc

    Geez! (no pun intended) give the man a break! He’ll post when he can, he’s doing this for nowt!
    Please no more daft comments. 10/1 11/1 whatever, it’s not matts fault. He’s just putting you onto a horse with a decent chance

  5. Johnny5

    Matt

    Keep doing what you’re doing when you do it

    Atholl saying what you post is no good to anyone and Jim yesterday saying your results since fatherhood are poor defy me

    You’d think you were coining them for heavy cash way they whine

    Up to us to get on what we can where we can – it’s you doing the work not us , and if folk like AB can’t be bothered to put a bit of legwork in to get the price then just put up and shutup with their ridiculous comments

    If you waited until 11am every day the price would have been hovered up by connections and other form students / pin hookers …. And clowns like ABlair would be accusing you of tipping on market movers !!!!

    To suggest SotD is responsible for solely moving a price is small minded

    Keep it up Matt and ignore the whiners – you’ve had a great year doing what you do , and it’s amazing how the critiquers and johnnycumlatelys like AB come out of the woodwork just now

  6. john

    Seems over critical to me. More about do it the way I want. I always anticipate not getting the price of a tipster and frequently I am pleasantly surprised. At 11am most people are at work so the overnight thing is useful for me. Do what works for you and your family who come first and second.

  7. Atholl Blair

    6/4 favourite with Betfred this morning. It obviously won’t stay at that but if there was ever a reason not to post/back horses during the night when the automatic flagging systems are in place, this is it.

    1. Jim

      Hi Atholl

      I’ve been following Matt for some time and I know he is a genuine guy trying to put up good tips/advice for people FREE OF CHARGE.

      I also know that he is open to rational argument and ideas.

      I would be interested – as I am sure Matt would be – in any evidence you have about the way the prices change. It seems to me that Matt puts up his analysis and cites the prices available at the time of posting. Sometimes the prices are there for a while and sometimes they aren’t.

      The only clear suggestion you seem to be making is to post them at the same fixed time everyday. This may or may not be very practical but where is the evidence to believe that this will ensure people get the best prices available? At the minute, some people may get a good price and others may get a lower price but there is no evidence that people will be better off by not getting the earlier prices.

      Keep up the good work Matt and here’s hoping today’s tip is a winner – Betfred’s 6/4 was clearly a rick and they are now at 6/1 as at 11.40 – I’ll take a 6/1 winner any day!!!

      Jim

  8. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Matt – looks like a good call. Just come on and can hardly get a comment on due to your new friends (lol). As said last week still well up on SotD – only managed 13/2 BOG with my favorite P.P. though, it’s a hard world !

    Regards

  9. Chris A

    Hi Matt

    Keep up the good work, I am sure if AB is that worried, he can do his own homework & make his own selections, from my point of view, I am quite happy to keep following your excellent site and articles.

    One small point, and this is not a criticism in any shape or form, but I have only just managed to log on today at 11.30, my doing I appreciate, and Everaard is 11-2 BOG with bet365. At that price, presumably it would not be a bet in your eyes as no value? From my point of view, I will have a punt as I have a feeling the bad run is going to come to an end today and I have to admit to have never being that scientific in my punting, hence, the reason I am typing this from my office at work rather than the comfort of my home!!

    Cheers, Chris

  10. ecromptonEd

    Good Morning Everyone,

    To all the non-believers, bugger off!

    Horse Racing and making a profit, is a mathamatical science! It’s not just a question of finding a winner. If your only going to ever have one bet in your life, then yes, it is about finding a winner! As I’m sure everyone on here has the intention of backing more than one horse in their life, then it’s more about finding the value.

    SoTD’s selection method is very close to my own and something I believe will work over the long period (it has for me for over 4 years now!). I have massive losing streaks but over the period of year I will come out in front as I invariably beat the market, as has SoTD.

    I’ve done a quick calculation on SoTD performance and from a years analysis, we have on average a 30% Strike Rate (which is very good!) from 315 runners. Now my calculations show that from this we should expect, every now and again 14 consequtive losers. If you started with a 14 point bank you’d be buggered, so I would start with 3 times that amount and you’ll be protecting yourself. 120 odd points profit is outstanding for a service that is FREE!

    Anyway, I’ll stop ranting and let SoTD continue on it’s inevitable road to profit!

    Regards,

    Ed

  11. anthony lines

    hi matt,and good luck with the horse ive missed the value today,but i will wait till january when the horse will probably run up another sequence,so if it doesnt win today put it in your alerts
    regards,hoggy

  12. It's Chris

    Seems quite simple to me. Matt posted at a time where value could be extracted prior to the money flying in from people who don’t study races till much later. You snooze you loose. In order to get value you often require to get on before every bugger else wakes up.

  13. oneman

    Hi Matt.
    Great to see that “Well I Declare, Malcolm Boyle” agrees with your choice today ” Kate Walton’s 5/19 strike rate is none too shabby either! ” It can only be a good thing when different peoples stats come together. Excellent work from you all. Thanks.

  14. D.Hynes

    Matt, great advice as usual. Missed the value myself but that’s my fault not yours!!! I can’t stand these people who come on to YOUR FREE site and then leave comments telling you how to do your job. I know I could never put up with it. Next thing people like Atholl will be telling you when to take a S*!T…. (apologies for the profanity!)

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Haha, thanks Declan.

      In fairness to Atholl, I do take his point. But… the price on this horse – and numerous others – was bound to collapse as it was a rick, pure and simple.

      I have to fulfil my many obligations when I can: though I would love to have a ‘standard’ time to post, that’s simply not possible.

      Best,
      Matt

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      It was another good bet which didn’t pay off. Everaard got completely outpaced, going back to last place, before staying on again to be beaten less than ten lengths.

      Matt

  15. Stuart

    I wish the people who don’t like what Matt does would just F&%€ OFF and leave this site alone to those of us who appreciate his work!

    It would be one thing if you were paying for his work/opinions, but you’re not. Vote with your feet – if you don’t like it, just close the door quietly on your way out.

    Fwiw, you make moaning minnies me (and a lot of others on here) utterly sick. It’s beyond pathetic.

    Also fwiw, I saw Matt’s tweet when he tweeted and got 10/1 at Betfred, a tenner E/W. Perhaps you think Matt should arrange his family to fit the market or only post when you are at your PC?

    And this on a free site … Jesus H Christ on a rubber crutch, Matt, where do you find these people???

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi all

      Firstly, thanks a lot for the support which is appreciated. I can assure all that I’m using the exact same logic that I always have, and we’re just not currently getting the rub of the green.
      Secondly, whilst I appreciate that support, let’s try to keep it civil, on both sides of the debate.

      Thanks a lot for your understanding.

      Matt

  16. Phil

    Matt I think that you do yourself an injustice by saying that your posts do not affect the price of a horse, if you have 1200 followers to this service and only half of these back it then like it or not the price will shorten, most bookmakers are scared of any sort of coup and will run to the hills as soon as any horse comes in for sustained support.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      I take your point Phil, but short of putting up a paywall, there’s nothing I can do about that alas. I’m sure we have a few less backing them after the last couple of weeks… 🙁

      Matt

  17. ONEMAN

    The end of the race was a farce if you were driving a car and expect a bend you slow down! If that bend is taken out then things change. This has happened before! Cheltenham ring a bell. last year was one i remember in a late day races, where they took a lot of obstacles out! with PTP or young riders race.Not sure??? will have to look it up again. They took half the course out!!!
    The odd thing is, do you thing that all the jockeys knew about it before the race or was it a in race thing???

    Did get 2nd and 4th but that is no advantage to us. live and learn Matt. I just think you where a bit robbed today with that and will not include this race in my calcs. Try Emma lavelle she has a fantastic rate in November over the years..

    Please do not bight to the doom mongers, you know they you will

  18. Rob B

    Mathew, firstly a bad couple of weeks, secondly, posting SOTD when it suits you and your family, WTF.

    That’s me done with the rant, now can you just explain to me what is meant by this racing term “value”?

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