Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

4.35 Bath : Airshow @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 9/2 (Tracked leader, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

We now continue with Tuesday's...

3.35 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 4,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo+) on good ground worth £5531 to the winner... 


Well, what we have here is an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three starts and whose career stats include...

  • 3 from 11 at 7/8 furlongs
  • 3 from 3 in blinkers
  • 2 from 2 since moving to Paul Cole's yard (more on Paul in a moment!)
  • 1 from 1 at Class 4
  • 1 from 1 under jockey Raul da Silva

And now to trainer Paul Cole...

Over the last 21 months, his LTO winners have gone on to follow up 11 times from 37 (29.7% SR) generating 29.1pts (+78.8% ROI) profit along the way, which are good numbers and in the context of today's race, those 37 are..

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%) as males
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 35.1pts (+113.4%) at the ages of 2 to 4
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 33.2pts (+107.2%) over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs
  • 11/30 (36.7%) for 36.1pts (+120.5%) in handicaps
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 23.6pts (+112.4%) at 21-60 days after their last run/win
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 33pts (+194.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 19.6pts (+244.6%) at the age of 4
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 14.15pts (+283%) with Raul da Silva in the saddle

AND...from the above  : 2-4 yr old male handicappers over 5 to 9 furlongs = 9/18 (50% SR) for 36.67pts (+203.7% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 21.43pts (+428.5%) over the last 6 months and Raul has ridden 3 of those 5, winning twice (66.6%) and making 6.6pts (+220%) profit, including a win on today's pick!

More generally, since the start of 2015, Mr Cole's runners are 10/26 (38.5% SR) for 33.5pts (+128.7% ROI) profit here at Brighton with the following subsets of relevance today...

  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 23.5pts (+123.4%) in handicaps
  • 8/16 (50%) for 14.9pts (+92.9%) at ISP odds shorter than 5/1
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 21.42pts (+142.8%) during April/May
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 6.64pts (+73.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/8 (50%) for 7.64pts (+95.5%) with 4 yr olds
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 18.66pts (+311%) on good ground

...all pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Spirit of Belle @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available from 10Bet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Monday, although the best price was 7/2 BOG from bet365 for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 3.35 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th May 2018

      1. Paul Kendall

        Well they have happened Chris, we got the forecast up last year between you and Steve and someone posted aTimeform recommend, I think, giving the third for the tricast!

  1. whiston01

    Only just read Blokeshead and other comments from yesterday. I have follwed SOTD since it started and can honestly say there isnt much out there that can compare with the profits made by Chris over that very long period.
    I used to be looking for the holy grail and flit from service to service when a poor run occurred. The key to it is having faith in a service and its selection process. When you have this you get through the inevitable poor run. I totally believe that Chris can and has done this. I now have three tipsters in my portfolio and i will not be looking for any more. By the way as Chris said yesterday its hardly been a bad run as profits were made in that notoriously difficult month of April. Keep up the good work Chris.

      1. whiston01

        Sorry for the late reply. The other two are SP2A and a close friend who specialises in novice hurdlers over the jumps and two year olds on the flat. He doesnt advertise but sends details of selections to a few friends.

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