Stat of the Day, 8th March 2018

Wednesday's Result :

3.40 Fontwell : Cabernet D'Alene @ 3/1 BOG PU at 4/1 Never travelled and always towards rear, tailed off 3 out, pulled up before last.

Next up is Thursday's...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Montague @ 4/1 BOG

A Class 5, 6f handicap (3yo) on tapeta worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old colt has been running well of late, making the frame in each of his last three outings. he won a claimer at Wolverhampton at the end of January in what turned out to be his last run for Jamie Osborne, before finishing as a runner-up in each of his two starts for new handler David O'Meara since.

David's yard has been unusually on the cold list this winter, but with 5 of his 9 runners over the last two weeks making the frame, it does look like a corner is due to be turned and a winner should be on the horizon, hopefully Montague!

It should be noted that our boy is now dropping down a grade after those two Class 4 runner-up finishes and he might well be considered a tad unlucky to have bumped into a fast improving sort completing a 4-timer last out five days ago.

There's nothing of that ilk here today and added confidence comes from the fact that since the start of 2014, David O'Meara's runners turned back out just 4 to 7 days after top 4 finish are 39/186 (21% SR) for 33.74pts (+18.1% ROI) and with today's contest in mind, those include...

  • handicappers at 34/153 (22.2%) for 33.12pts (+21.7%)
  • over trips of 5f to 9f : 33/153 (21.6%) for 37.23pts (+24.3%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 6/1 : 26/85 (30.6%) for 55pts (+64.7%)
  • those beaten by 1 to 5 lengths LTO are 19/79 (24.1%) for 38.6pts (+48.9%)

AND...horses ticking all four of the above boxes are 11 from 28 (39.3% SR) for 30.6pts (+109.1% ROI) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Montague @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.10pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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