Stat of the Day, 8th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

2.00 Southwell : Crosse Fire @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Prominent, ridden over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, beaten by just over half a length.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Lingfield...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Make Music13/2 BOG

Why?

Well, on another day that's hardly brimming with decent statistical options, I'm going to keep it fairly simple with a 4yr old who has 3 wins and a place from just 5 visits to Lingfield (2 wins from 3 on the A/W) and has a 2 from 6 record under today's jockey David Probert.

She's trained by Andrew Balding whose runners have won 48 of their 280 A/W races here at Lingfield since the start of 2013 and that 17.1% strike rate is good for level stakes profits of 76.1pts at an ROI of 27.2%. These are decent enough figures to base a bet on, especially when I feel the horse is overpriced at as high as 7/1 (she was actually 12's at one point!).

More confidence is gained from breaking the trainer's record down into components of today's race, because those 280 Andrew Balding Lingfield runners have achieved the following under today's conditions...

  • over 6f to 1m : 27/170 (15.9%) for 115.6pts (+68%)
  • running 16-30 days after last run : 18/97 (18.6%) for 123pts (+126.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 19/96 (19.8%) for 73.3pts (+76.4%)
  • 4 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 35.5pts (+71%)
  • and at Class 4 : 8/26 (30.8%) for 28.8pts (+110.6%)

...providing...a 1pt win bet on Make Music 13/2 BOG which was available with Hills, Betbright, BetVictor and/or Coral at 6.35pm on Tuesday, but if you can, DO take the 7/1 BOG-plus on offer from Betway. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th March 2017

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      ooooooochaaaaaaaa Mr B! 😀

      Still 4.8/1 at worst and some will have got 5.6/1 via the Betway 7/1, which is excellent about an 11/4 winner

  1. buskin

    Thanks yet again Chris. Can confirm PP up to their old tricks with the R4 but a great winner anyway. Also included in a yankee of picks via Instant Expert – 3 winners and a third! Love this site.

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