Stat of the Day, 8th July 2016

Thursday's Result :

4.30 Doncaster : Bajan Rebel @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Led, headed over 1f out, ridden and no extra inside final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Afandem at 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 2yr old colt has made an impressive start to his racing career, finishing 131 in his three starts to date including a win on similarly good to form ground last time (24 days ago) and now comes here for a handicap debut for handler Hugo Palmer.

And your simple Hugo Palmer micro-system = back all his runners!

Seriously, if you'd backed every single one of his runners from 7th April 2011 when his first entrant was seen, you'd have backed 115 winners from 728 (15.8% SR) and a £20 stake on each of them would have netted you a cool £2742 at an ROI of 18.8% and that's blind backing at Betfair SP and we know we can do better at BOG!

But SotD wouldn't be SotD, if I wasn't a bit more specific, would it? So, let's look at Hugo's 728 runners to date in respect of this particular race, where we'll find that...

  • those racing at trips shorter than 1m3f are 107/662 (16.2%) for 146.4pts (+22.1%)
  • on the Flat, they are 80/505 (15.8%) for 81pts (+16%)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 7/1 are 61/289 (21.1%) for 56.1pts (+19.4%)
  • 2 yr olds are 51/276 (18.5%) for 28.9pts (+10.5%)
  • LTO winners are 22/101 (21.8%) for 41.7pts (+41.3%)
  • Class 3 runners are 11/65 (16.9%) for 21.7pts (+33.4%)
  • those on handicap debut are 10/46 (21.7%) for 63.3pts (+137.7%)

And if you did want a Hugo Palmer micro with fewer selections than the original, then you could do worse than backing all his 2/3 yr olds at 2/1 to 6/1 over trips shorter than 1m3f on the Flat.

This currently stands at 38/123 (30.9% SR) for 81.8pts (+66.5% ROI) and in the last three weeks, there have been 7 such qualifiers, of which 6 made the frame with 4 going on to win. Needless to say, Afandem fits this particular bill too!

...so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Afandem at 3/1 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms showing that price at 6.25pm or you can get 100/30 non-BOG with Stan James if you like, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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