Stat of the Day, 8th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2015

I always try to put a positive outlook on the previous SotD runner, regardless of result, but I'm really struggling here!

Neutron Bomb was just poor, well beaten and eventually trailed home last of nine runners and we didn't even beat SP, which was the same 6/1 as I'd taken/advised.

I haven't got the time or the energy to attempt to find somethnig nice about the run and my dear old gran used to tell me to say nothing if I couldn't say anything nice, so I'll move swiftly on to Wednesday's...

2.50 Wolverhampton:

Same venue as yesterday, but a totally different race. This is a Class 5 handicap over 1m6f, where my shilling is on Mick Channon's 4 yr old filly Stoneham who is currently priced at 5/1 BOG to beat her older rivals here.

Now, some of my posts for SotD are quite long and contain some relatively complicated microsystems, but I'm going to keep it relatively short, simple and hopefully sweet here!

Mick Channon's record at Wolverhampton since the start of 2012 is decent with 28 winners from 148 (18.9% SR) for 46.6pts (+31.5% ROI) profit, broken down as follows...

  • Class 4 to 6 runners are 27/141 (19.2% SR) for 45.1pts (+31.9% ROI)
  • Handicappers are 16/80 (20% SR) for 57.3pts (+71.7% ROI)
  • Horses ridden by Charlie Bishop are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 53.5pts (+205.6% ROI)
  • Those running beyond 1m4f are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 41.2pts (+343.1% ROI)

In class 4 to 6 handicaps Mick's horses are 15/73 (20.6% SR) for 55.7pts (+76.3% ROI) profit with Charlie Bishop riding 5 winners from 17 (29.4% SR) for 35.5pts (+208.6% ROI)

Stoneham is a horse in form, having finished 32212231 in eight starts this year, she has won twice on this tapeta surface and is 3221 here at Wolverhampton in 2015.

She likes to be held up off the pace for a later run and with three confirmed front runners in the field, the door could be left open for a finisher, especially one with Stoneham's stamina: she was a winner in a 2m hurdle last time out and has already won on this track over 16.5f, so I've no reservations about her not having something left late on.

She also finished 12231 in her last 5 runs going left handed and she's 32212 the last five times Charlie Bishop has ridden her, so conditions look favourable here as does a mark of 60, which might be a little generous.

And that's about it!

Other than to say that you should all be able to get on at 5/1 BOG, because there are currently at least 8 bookies offering that price, as seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

15 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th July 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Are you asking if I’d have changed my mind overnight?

      If so, the answer is no. I still think there’s more value in my selection than backing a favourite who has run poorly in handicap company of late, possibly carries too much weight and is hardly at the right end of the age spectrum.

      I know Matt has also flagged Noguchi, but we don’t always agree all the time and I’m happy with the selection I’ve made based on stats and (my) perceived value at the odds offered.

  1. Matt Bisogno Post author

    Stat of the Day is, as you can see, a heavily stat-based piece.

    As such, with respect, such questions as these are redundant. Chris has shown amazing ability to keep readers on front and, while you may have a reservation or feel a form-based question is appropriate, I frankly disagree.

    No form student would have picked Regal Park last night (see my race card post on that), so it’s really important to note that there are other roots to the pay window.

    Sorry, but I’ve seen a few such questions on stat of the Day recently, and they all rather miss the point.

    Matt

  2. FGR

    Thanks for flagging up Regal Park last night, Matt. A good example of taking a ‘sideways’ view of a race using the Geegeez racecards as opposed to the more conventional approach to form analysis.
    I’m sure other examples such as this would be appreciated by other subscribers, especially by Geegeez novices such as myself.
    So novicey, in fact, that I forgot that Regal Park was running! Doh!

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Paul

      The thing with Regal Park and its like are that they’re around every day. Chris actually does a really good job of flagging some in Stat of the Day, which ‘thinks’ along similar lines.

      The key is as simple as this: it is often trainer form rather than horse form that is of most importance.

      Plenty of examples on site, and I’m just putting the finishing touches to a compilation of old posts that will form the backbone of a book in due course. Will share it with geegeez visitors soon.

      Best,
      Matt

  3. FGR

    Looking forward to the book. Trainers and their methods is definitely one angle that interests me, so I’ll be paying much more attention to the Geegeez cards in future. I suppose it’s a case of retraining the punting mind in many respects.
    Finally, I can’t say I fully understand Johnhy’s comment about todays SOTD tip and the trip. Given that the filly won over an extended 9f back in October, surely it’s immaterial. But hey-hoe!

  4. aaron lumsden

    They just don’t seem to be playing along this week Chris but as has been stated before anybody who hasn’t endured a bad run must be not at this that long or are absaloutle experts and would have no need for your selection anyway !!!!
    As usual keep the faith and they will come good

  5. Roy Clark

    Hi Chris.I was very surprised that you went for Stoneham in the 2.50 at Wolves when Noguchi had a higher % in every section of the instant expert and was 1lb lower than his highest winning mark.As for not liking to back favourites as aposed to higher odds horses,I would rather back a 3-1 winner than a 7-1 loser.I hope you don’t take this as a criticism,as stat of the day is a very good tipping service.I just thought on this occasion that Noguchi had far to much going for him to make Stoneham a strong selection.Regards Roy Clark

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Roy

      I’d urge you to read my earlier comment. Stat of the Day is NOT A FORM-READING tipping piece. It is based on statistics which may relate – as in this case – to trainer and jockey more than the horse.

      The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and 300 points profit since Stat of the Day started says we’re getting it right much of the time.

      Please, I’d urge new readers of Stat of the Day to try to grasp what we’re doing here, and how it works. It is NOT what you might be used to, and such comments are NOT relevant, still less helpful.

      Sorry to whine, and thanks for understanding.

      Matt

      p.s. Again, with respect, when you can show you have Chris’ long term track record, then perhaps such a comment is relevant. Until then, I’m afraid it looks rather petulant. All you had to do was not back the horse if you felt that strongly. We don’t force you to bet them!! 😉

  6. Roy Clark

    Hi Mat.Thanks for your reply.I fully understand what Chris is trying to do but I think you are saying one thing in one blog and something else in another.You are always bleeping on about how good instant expert is,which it is,and it clearly pointed out that Noguchi had the best chance of winning the race,which it did.By the way,I backed Noguchi.I always back stat of the day unless I think another horse has a better chance.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Roy

      I’m absolutely not saying different things. Rather, I’m saying these are different approaches. There is no ‘right way’ to find winners.

      Form profiling – e.g. Instant Expert, Full Form Filter – is one way.
      Statistics analysis of trainer patterns – e.g. Dr Newland and Regal Park last night, and Stat of the Day generally – is another.

      Stat of the Day sometimes uses form-based stats from Instant Expert (more so when I do it than when Chris does, I think), but it often – usually, indeed – relies more on the habits of trainers.

      Anyway, after a good run expect a quieter one; and with a spot of luck, Chris will be back among the winners pronto.

      Best,
      Matt

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Often, Paul! Though not today with Roy. Not at all. Just a misunderstanding/difference of opinion.

      More so yesterday when having to defend putting in a word of support for Geegeez Gold at the bottom of a long and, I hoped, thought-provoking post about information presented on racecards. Ho hum, can’t win ’em all!!

      Best,
      Matt

  7. FGR

    I read yesterdays post. I’ll address it sometime soon. I think you’re both right and wrong, if that makes any sense.
    When I say I’m a novice, I mean that in regards to the Geegeez racecards, which are well worth looking into.
    Old school racecards and analysis still hold good providing you approach them from a slightly different angle to maintain an edge. But more of that later.
    Stay lucky.

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