Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015

Monday's Result :

2.00 Lingfield : Aleator @ 3/1 BOG 4th of 7 at 7/4 (Went 2nd on outside 8f out, ridden lost 2nd and outpaced over 1f out, plugged on but no threat after)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

1.10 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding comes here in good nick, after been a winner over hurdles on similarly soft ground just 8 days ago. That run was the first time he'd been partnered by today's jockey Adam Wedge and he won comfortably by 6 lengths despite not having raced for 238 days.

He runs off the same mark today, albeit over fences and should come on for having had the run and now runs off a mark a pound lower than his only other start over fences, when beaten by less than 5 lengths into third place on bottomless ground at Bangor back in February.

Zero Visibility is also 1 from 1 here at Fontwell, having won here over today's trip over hurdles by 7 lengths on heavy ground just over a year ago and with testing conditions forecast, he'll be happy, having won 2 of 4 starts on soft ground (P131) and he has a win and two places from four runs on heavy.

So, to date, he's 3 from 12, but of those 12 starts, he is 3/8 on soft/heavy, 3/8 at 9/2 and shorter, 3/8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners and 3/7 at Class 5, leading us to...

...Zero Visibility has three wins and a place from five runs (1P131) at class 5 on soft/heavy ground when priced at 9/2 or shorter in a race with fewer than 8 runners.

He's also trained by Alex Dunn, who has done really well with her NH handicappers in the short time she's held a licence, with 22 of her 194 runners (11.3% SR) winning their races and generating level stakes profits of 74.5pts at an ROI of 38.4%, making her well worth following, especially under today's race conditions, where she is...

  • 22/174 (12.6% SR) for 94.5pts (+54.3% ROI) with horse aged 6 to 10 yrs old
  • 9/74 (12.2% SR) for 33.7pts (+45.6% ROI) in chases
  • 8/55 (14.6% SR) for 22pts (+40% ROI) at Class 5
  • 7/37 (18.9% SR) for 38.4pts (+103.8% ROI) with those ridden by Adam Wedge
  • 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 24.5pts (+74.2% ROI) with those racing at trips of 2m 1.5f to 2m 3.5f.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 5.45pm?

A 1pt win bet on Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG, that's with BetVictor and also as a non-BOG price available from Betway and/or Ladbrokes with 9/4 BOG being the best alternative BOG on offer at present. I think this one might shorten, so if you can't get on with betVictor, you should consider the better non-BOG price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015

  1. Chris Worrall Post author

    What is it they say?
    If I didn’t have bad luck, I’d have no luck.

    I suppose I should take the positive that it was still a good pick and we smashed the 11/8 SP by taking 11/4.

  2. Rambler

    Hi Chris – What price to get TWO FALLERS at the last in 5 days when both were well clear. That’s life ! Great picks though Chris, would have been 3 from 4 without the last fence blunders.

    Cheers

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