Stat of the Day, 8th December 2015
Monday's Result :
2.00 Lingfield : Aleator @ 3/1 BOG 4th of 7 at 7/4 (Went 2nd on outside 8f out, ridden lost 2nd and outpaced over 1f out, plugged on but no threat after)
Tuesday's selection runs in the...
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Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG
This 8 yr old gelding comes here in good nick, after been a winner over hurdles on similarly soft ground just 8 days ago. That run was the first time he'd been partnered by today's jockey Adam Wedge and he won comfortably by 6 lengths despite not having raced for 238 days.
He runs off the same mark today, albeit over fences and should come on for having had the run and now runs off a mark a pound lower than his only other start over fences, when beaten by less than 5 lengths into third place on bottomless ground at Bangor back in February.
Zero Visibility is also 1 from 1 here at Fontwell, having won here over today's trip over hurdles by 7 lengths on heavy ground just over a year ago and with testing conditions forecast, he'll be happy, having won 2 of 4 starts on soft ground (P131) and he has a win and two places from four runs on heavy.
So, to date, he's 3 from 12, but of those 12 starts, he is 3/8 on soft/heavy, 3/8 at 9/2 and shorter, 3/8 in fields of 7 or fewer runners and 3/7 at Class 5, leading us to...
...Zero Visibility has three wins and a place from five runs (1P131) at class 5 on soft/heavy ground when priced at 9/2 or shorter in a race with fewer than 8 runners.
He's also trained by Alex Dunn, who has done really well with her NH handicappers in the short time she's held a licence, with 22 of her 194 runners (11.3% SR) winning their races and generating level stakes profits of 74.5pts at an ROI of 38.4%, making her well worth following, especially under today's race conditions, where she is...
- 22/174 (12.6% SR) for 94.5pts (+54.3% ROI) with horse aged 6 to 10 yrs old
- 9/74 (12.2% SR) for 33.7pts (+45.6% ROI) in chases
- 8/55 (14.6% SR) for 22pts (+40% ROI) at Class 5
- 7/37 (18.9% SR) for 38.4pts (+103.8% ROI) with those ridden by Adam Wedge
- 6/33 (18.2% SR) for 24.5pts (+74.2% ROI) with those racing at trips of 2m 1.5f to 2m 3.5f.
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 5.45pm?
A 1pt win bet on Zero Visibility @ 11/4 BOG, that's with BetVictor and also as a non-BOG price available from Betway and/or Ladbrokes with 9/4 BOG being the best alternative BOG on offer at present. I think this one might shorten, so if you can't get on with betVictor, you should consider the better non-BOG price, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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