Stat of the Day, 7th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.10 Chepstow : Starshell @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 2/1 : Held up mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 3rd place inside final furlong...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.35 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Azari @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has won two of his last five starts, including last time out hare at Haydock 26 days ago. He was hanging on somewhat at the end, so the half furlong drop back in trip should help him,as should the booking of the far more experienced and frankly better jockey, Richard Kingscote.

At this time of year as the Flat season approaches a climax, I like to keep an eye out for trainer Tom Dascombe, who tends to pick up more than his fair share of handicaps wins during the closing stages.

Numerically...2011-17 / August-October / 1m to 1m4f / 3-5 yr olds = 22/115 (19.1% SR) for 130.6pts (+113.5% ROI), with the following relevant subsets of data all at play today...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 19/90 (21.1%) for 139.2pts (+154.7%)
  • those ridden by Richard Kingscote : 13/57 (22.8%) for 76.6pts (+134.4%)
  • in September : 12/38 (31.6%) for 81.3pts (+213.9%)
  • at Haydock : 11/30 (36.7%) for 57.4pts (+191.3%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock : 8/19 (42.1%) for 49.5pts (+260.3%)
  • LTO winners : 7/19 (36.8%) for 17.12pts (+90.1%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 21.4pts (+152.5%)
  • under Kingscote at Haydock in September : 6/9 (66.7%) for 50.6pts (+562.5%)
  • and under Kingscote at Haydock in September at Class 2 : 2/2 9100%) for 14pts (+700%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on  Azari @ 9/2 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday: the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Coral. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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