Stat of the Day, 8th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.35 Haydock : Azari @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 : Dwelt, in rear, headway 3f out on inner, soon chased winner, kept on and always well held, beaten by Steve's Race of the Day selection by two lengths...

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Here we have an in-form horse with some relevant positive race stats representing a yard also in good touch who do well at this track.

Need numbers?

OK, let's go!

We've a 3 yr old gelding with three wins in his last six outings, including a win over this 1m trip last time out, on soft ground 27 days ago. He has won 4 of his 13 starts to date, which is a decent return for mid-grade horses, but the following suggest this is his kind of race, as his record includes...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 over the 1m trip
  • 4 wins and a place when sent off at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins from 5 after a break of 2 to 4 weeks
  • a win and a place from 2 runs on good to soft ground
  • he won his only previous race in this grade
  • he won his only previous race under Silvestre de Sousa
  • and he made the frame on his only other visit to this track, which was at a higher grade than today

And the trainer?

Michael Bell has saddled up 5 winners from 21 runners over the last fortnight, so things are going pretty well there, whilst since 2008 his record here at Ascot stands at 20 from 174 (11.5% SR) for profits of 60pts at an ROI of 34.5% : these are decent numbers, of course, but in the context of this particular challenge...

  • his male runners are 16/137 (11.7%) for 63.7pts (+46.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 8/66 (12.1%) for 56.7pts (+85.9%)
  • over the last four seasons : 8/51 (15.7%) for 70.2pts (+137.7%)
  • LTO winners are 10/48 (20.8%) for 22.9pts (+47.7%)
  • and those coming off a break of 21-30 days are 9/46 (19.6%) for 26.4pts (+57.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Thursday, so the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th September 2017

  1. Paul Kendall

    No great surprise that you’re gracious in defeat, Chris. I follow you both, so I’m happy and it was very interesting to see your individual readings of what is ostensibly the same information.
    Thank you.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      At the end of the day, it’s a win for geegeez! Myself and Steve use the tools available to come up with independent solutions, my only regret was not doing the forecast!

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          The Race of the Day feature is an excellent showcase of the geegeez Gold toolbox and Steve nominates more than his fair share of winners from it.

          I urge more of you to read it and get involved.

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