Stat of the Day, 7th October 2015
At 5/2 BOG, Early Bird was towards the sharper end of where I'm comfortable advising at and I was very surprised that after some withdrawals, he was sent off at that very price.
He was fairly sharply away, bagged the rail easily enough and was pretty comfortable in seeing off his challengers one by one, before easing down once the race was won.
It was a really nice ride and the three length margin of victory could have been much, much more, but we wouldn't have got paid any extra! So, it's another 2.5pts into the pot, September's losses are more than covered and we're in front for October.
The weather looks awful, so it's A/W action on Wednesday evening, courtesy of the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
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And an 11/4 BOG bet on the 7yr old gelding Circuitous, who is trained by Keith Dalgleish, a man to keep an eye out for in A/W handicaps, quite simply because he's profitable to follow backing blindly!
Now in his fifth year as a trainer, his career record in A/W handicaps stands at 62 winners from 367 runners (16.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 77.8pts at an ROI of 21.2%. These are excellent returns for set and forget betting, but we do like to see if there's a better angle here at Geegeez.
And the way we do that, is by having a closer look at those 367 runners and they fit into today's race, something like this...
- 59/346 (17.1% SR) for 82.2pts (+23.8% ROI) in races of 6 to 14 runners
- male runners are 52/301 (17.3% SR) for 73.6pts (+24.4% ROI)
- at odds of 15/8 to 10/1 : 47/250 (18.8% SR) for 68.4pts (+27.4% ROI)
- Class 6 races : 31/130 (233.9% SR) for 75.6pts (+58.1% ROI)
- over 7 furlongs : 18/87 (20.7% SR) for 88.3pts (+101.5% ROI)
- here at Kempton : 9/52 (17.3% SR) for 15.4pts (+29.5% ROI)
The figures would suggest we'll get a decent run for our money today and I know that many of you like the little composite microsystems from the daily breakdowns, so today's is a small sample size, but Keith Dalgleish's male A/W handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 in fields of 7 to 14 runners over 6 or 7 furlongs at Classes 4 to 6 are 5 wins from 12 (41.7% SR) for 20.25pts (+168.7% ROI) and four of the seven losers made the frame for a place strike rate of 75%.
Circuitous is top rated (OR) here off a mark of 55 and since 2009 in Class 6, 7 furlong contests here at Kempton, male runners aged 4 to 7 who were top rated and priced at 2/1 or bigger running 4 to 60 days after a handicap run last time out went on to win on 21 of 125 occasions (16.8% SR) for profits of 66.3pts (+53.1% ROI) with those rated (OR) in the 53 to 60 bracket winning 14 of 70 (230% SR) for 52.8pts (+75.4% ROI).
Circuitous has only made three prior appearances on this track and has finished third over 6 furlongs and won his only effort over today's track and trip. It was, admittedly, the best part of three years ago, but he hasn't been back since, but now returns on a mark just 2lbs higher than that win.
That 11/4 BOG price quoted above about Circuitous is available with Betfair Sportsbook, SkyBet and Coral: I've plumped for the latter, but you can make your own mind up, when you...
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