Stat of the Day, 7th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2014

At 10.55am on Monday, Placidia became our second successive non-runner and so we still await our first run of the week.

In a bid to avoid any ground concerns for my Tuesday selection, I'm returning to a tried and tested A/W formula that has served both myself and SotD well over the last few years, with a runner in the...

6.05 Kempton:

Where I've just placed a 4/1 BOG bet on a horse, Blue Army, whose career form line reads 755 and hasn't yet got within five lengths of a winner so far. You'd be forgiven for thinking I'd lost the plot a little, but today is his first trip to Kempton, where he now makes his handicap debut for Saeed bin Suroor...

...a trainer who excels with this type of horse 

Since 2009, 145 of Saeed bin Suroor's 834 handicap runners (17.4% SR) have been winners and this is a decent strike rate from such a large sample size. The level stakes profits of 43.9pts (+5.3% ROI) are admittedly modest, but its's still a profit from blind backing and we can easily tweak things to our advantage here!

His A/W handicappers are more successful and also more profitable to follow with a record of 53 wins from 1983 runs (29% SR) for 75.3pts (+41.2% ROI), figures that most of us would be more than happy with for a stats-based selection, but I've only just started!

The record at Kempton reads 31 winners from 110 (28.2% SR) for 64.1pts (+58.2% ROI) with 20 of those winners coming from the 72 3 yr old runners. This 27.8% strike rate has produced 51.4pts profit at an ROI of 71.4% to date.

Coincidentally there were also 20 winners in the 5/2 to 8/1 bracket, that's 20 winners from 65 (30.8% SR) for 53 pts (+81.5% ROI). And from all this we find that...

...Saeed bin Suroor's 3 yr old horses have a record of 13/43 (30.2% SR) for 33.8pts (+78.6% ROI) when sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 price range in Kempton A/W handicap contests.

Blue Army makes his handicap debut today...

Over the six seasons, Saeed bin Suroor has a record of 16 winners from 50 (325 SR) for 18.5pts (+37% ROI) profit with horses making their handicap debut on an A/W surface. From those 50 runners, there is an 11/33 (33.3% SR) record here at Kempton producing 12.3pts level stakes profits at an ROI of 37.4% to date.

Of the 11/22 record here at Kempton, the 3 yr olds have won 7 of 22 (31.8% SR) races for 10.7pts (+48.7% ROI) and the 3 yr olds running at odds of between 5/2 and 8/1 have won 5 of 11 (45.5% SR) handicap debuts here at Kempton, yielding 15.4pts (+14.3% ROI) profit.

He's also stepping up in trip by a furlong from his last run...

The yard often steps horses up a furlong for their handicap debut and enjoys a good degree of success from the tactic. Since 2009 the record stands at 16 winners from 39 (41% SR) for 40.7pts profit (+104.4% ROI) since 2009, with four winners from ten here at Kempton.

And finally, Blue Army has his first run on the A/W after three efforts on turf...

Saeed bin Suroor has a good record with horses starting out on turf and then switching quite early to the A/W during the Flat season proper. The fact that there is still plenty of Flat racing on offer shows this is a premeditated move that works well for him.

He has used this tactic with 140 horses since 2009 and 61 of them (43.6% SR) have won on their first crack at an artificialtrack, resulting in 93pts profit at an ROI of 66.4%.

From these 140 runners...
Those with just 1 to 4 previous outings won 57 of 127 races (44.9% SR) for 90pts (+70.9% ROI) profit.
At Kempton, the record is 31/73 (42.5% SR) for 62.2pts (+85.32% ROI)
The 7/4 to 9/1 odds range provided 48 winners from 106 (45.3% SR) for 105.6pts (+99.6% ROI)

Here at Kempton, those in that 7/4 to 9/1 range won 24 of 50 races (48% SR) for 71.7pts, with those with three or fewer runs under their belt having a record of 19 wins from 39 (48.7% SR) for 65.3pts profit at an ROI of 167.5%.

So, we've a whole stack of data to support the selection, but there's little to say about Blue Army himself other than he clearly comes from a top yard and his pedigree suggests he'll take well to the surface. His opening mark is understandably low at 66 and there could be room to exploit that and I consider the booking of Richard Hughes a positive move here, with no disrespect intended to the others that have ridden this horse in the past.

Finally, I should mention that not only does this yard go well here at Kempton, they are currently in excellent overall form with 5 winners from 12 in the last week and 23 winners from 70 over the past month, a month which has seen them notch up 9 winners from 23 on the All-Weather, including 5 of their last 10 runners here at Kempton.

The horse's previous form might mean this is a bit of a leap of faith, but the stats still point to a good run for our money from a 1pt win bet on Blue Army at 4/1 BOG. I'm on with BetVictor, but you can get the same price at Bet365, whilst you can see the full picture, when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.05 Kempton

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7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th October 2014

  1. RomJim

    Good tipping Chris – now in to best price of 2/1 with Will Hill. I was going to support this as a carlisle United supporter but 2/1 is a bit short so will watch it win. Good Luck. Jim

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      And down to 13/8 in places! The thing is quite simple to me.
      All the stats I use are actually readily available if you put the work in. I generally do it the night before and it takes me about an hour and a half to do the whole piece.
      We get the best BOG price before the world wakes up and does its own research and invariably beat the market.

      Would I want to back it below 2/1?
      No, mate! 😀

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Graham,
      To be honest with you, I’m not sure where to suggest you start from.
      I write a lot of stuff down and if I hear something that I think I might be able to use, I write it down and then take it away and see if I can expand on it.
      I have a portfolio of microsystems that I use and if I see a horse that fits a few of my sets of criteria, then I have to consider it for SotD.

      If I was just starting out now, I’d recommend Horseracebase as a tool for digging down into the stats, and you can get some pointers via our own daily reports like the Shortlist, Trainer reports, Horses 4 courses etc. And you’ll begin to build up a picture.

      Chris

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