Stat of the Day, 7th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th October 2013

Hail Tiberius ran a patient race yesterday and only took the lead at the last, before going to win reasonably comfortably in the end. That was both his and our second win inside 5 days and the slight drift from out 5/2 early BOG price to his 11/4 SP meant an extra 0.25pts in our kitty and as Tesco would have us believe...every little helps! 😀

An interesting Class 4 one-mile handicap awaits today in the...

5.20 Windsor

In last Thursday's piece, I selected Ballinderry Boy (who won for us at 4/1) partly because Andrew Balding has an excellent record when using 5lb claiming jockeys and even more so when talented youngster Oisin Murphy was in the saddle.

Andrew Balding has used a 5lb claimer in 37 handicap races in the last 12 months with 12 winners (32.43% SR) and 53.63pts profit (+144.95%) at level stakes. Oisin Murphy's record from these 37 runners is an excellent 4 winners from 9 (44.44%) for 31.24pts profit, an ROI of over 347%.

With a 6/1 odds cap applied to the original 37 runners, the record is 9/23 (39.13%) for profits of 21.37pts (+92.91%) and the jockey/trainer record with the 6/1 odds cap in place is 3/4 for 11.30pts (+282.5%) profit.

Oisin Murphy rides the consistent Melvin The Grate for Andrew Balding here today, a horse that has already two wins and three places to his name from just seven outings and will most likely go off as favourite here today.

I don't particularly like backing favourites per se (as long as they win, it's fine, though! :D) However, it should be noted that favourites have won 32 out of 80 handicap contests here at Windsor in 2013. That 40% strike rate is far higher than you'd expect and if you'd backed all of them to a £10 level stake, you'd be sitting on a nice profit of £316.90 as we speak, an ROI of almost 40%, just from backing the fav!

I think Oisin Murphy is destined for big things and he continues to churn out a decent proportion of winners at good prices and he could just be the important factor in getting horse over the line who was second last time out in a higher grade than this.

This is a competitive affair and although Melvin The Grate is currently favourite, we can still get 9/2 BOG about him. I've gone with BetVictor, although Stan James are matching the price, so to take your pick...

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Here is today's racecard!

 

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th October 2013

  1. martin

    Hi Chris…hope your feeling better! It’s interesting to note that the top two in the market have shorten up….especially Cruiser who was certainly longer than 11/2 this morning. Can only put the shortening of each horse’s prices down to ‘the pull’ of the relative tipsters tipping them…your good self and Hugh Taylor.

    Martin

  2. martin

    Hi Chris…a belated reply…went off to Pontefract races today!

    Think your being modest Chris…..SotD stats speak for themselves.

    Since its (SotD start):

    184 winners from 646 = 28.48% S.R
    P/L: +109.55pts
    ROI: +16.96%

    You’ve certainly played a huge part in generating those profits and hence the large following that SotD and Geegeez in general enjoys.

    Hugh Taylor is good…but the results of SotD pay testament to the time and quality of SotD

    Best

    Martin

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