Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Friday's Result :

3.30 Musselburgh : Kodicil @ 6/1 BOG : a 5/1 faller (Close up in 4th when fell 6th), but Coral have given us a free bet as part of their faller insurance.

Saturday's selection runs in the...

2.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Waltz @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has won three times and finished as a runner-up on two occasions in her nine races so far. She's 3 from 3 going left handed and is 2 from 2 here at Doncaster, 2 from 2 over today's 1m2.5f trip and 2 from over course and distance as a result. Throw in a 1 from 1 return on soft ground and you've got the ideal race for her.

She's trained by the great Luca Cumani who has a record better than one in five on Town Moor with 33 winners from 155 (21.3% SR) Doncaster runners since the start of 2008 that have produced level stakes profits of 29.5pts at an ROI of 19.1%, but with today's contest to consider, those 155 runners are...

  • 29/117 (24.8% SR) for 60.1pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 11/8 to 10/1
  • 23/74 (31.1% SR) for 50.8pts (+68.6% ROI) when running 21 to 45 days after their last run
  • 15/49 (30.6% SR) for 36.8pts (+75.2% ROI) from female runners
  • 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 44.1pts (+91.8% ROI) over today's 1m 2.5f trip.
  • 12/48 (25% SR) for 36.4pts (+75.9% ROI) with 4 yr olds
  • 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 19.7pts (+56.3% ROI) in female only races
  • 3/12 (25% SR) for 9.9pts (+82.5% ROI) at Class 1.

And since 2008, Luca Cumani's 3/4 yr old runners, priced at 10/1 or shorter, tackling Doncaster over trips of 7 to 14.5 furlongs, 21 to 45 days after their last outing are 22/51 (43.1% SR) for profits of 70.4pts (+138% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Blue Waltz at 5/1 BOG with any one of nine firms matching those odds . I've used Coral for my bet because I've got a free token from yesterday's SotD faller to us up, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

      1. Everyone calls me Paul

        suspect Gallou is talking about 365 at 7/2, but there are other bookies, mate (Stans were 11/2 when posted). It’s a big competitive field but it is a slightly strange looking market. I put half a point on at Betfair last night at 7.2 but decided to see what the score was this morning for the remainder. Just put it on at 11/2 at Victors…could still get a 10% premium on the exchanges, but may still drift, yet. Am also on Lahayeb and Pandora, so could be expensive!

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Yes, Paul, I thought the same, but I never even mentioned Bet365!
          I used Coral as everyone who used them yesterday should and Stan James were 11/2, but I rarely use them the day before racing as they’re non-BOG until 10.00am.

          Chris

          PS Get your self on the permed tricast 😀

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