Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

Friday's Result :

3.30 Musselburgh : Kodicil @ 6/1 BOG : a 5/1 faller (Close up in 4th when fell 6th), but Coral have given us a free bet as part of their faller insurance.

Saturday's selection runs in the...

2.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Blue Waltz @ 5/1 BOG


This 4yr old filly has won three times and finished as a runner-up on two occasions in her nine races so far. She's 3 from 3 going left handed and is 2 from 2 here at Doncaster, 2 from 2 over today's 1m2.5f trip and 2 from over course and distance as a result. Throw in a 1 from 1 return on soft ground and you've got the ideal race for her.

She's trained by the great Luca Cumani who has a record better than one in five on Town Moor with 33 winners from 155 (21.3% SR) Doncaster runners since the start of 2008 that have produced level stakes profits of 29.5pts at an ROI of 19.1%, but with today's contest to consider, those 155 runners are...

  • 29/117 (24.8% SR) for 60.1pts (+51.4% ROI) at odds of 11/8 to 10/1
  • 23/74 (31.1% SR) for 50.8pts (+68.6% ROI) when running 21 to 45 days after their last run
  • 15/49 (30.6% SR) for 36.8pts (+75.2% ROI) from female runners
  • 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 44.1pts (+91.8% ROI) over today's 1m 2.5f trip.
  • 12/48 (25% SR) for 36.4pts (+75.9% ROI) with 4 yr olds
  • 9/35 (25.7% SR) for 19.7pts (+56.3% ROI) in female only races
  • 3/12 (25% SR) for 9.9pts (+82.5% ROI) at Class 1.

And since 2008, Luca Cumani's 3/4 yr old runners, priced at 10/1 or shorter, tackling Doncaster over trips of 7 to 14.5 furlongs, 21 to 45 days after their last outing are 22/51 (43.1% SR) for profits of 70.4pts (+138% ROI).

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Blue Waltz at 5/1 BOG with any one of nine firms matching those odds . I've used Coral for my bet because I've got a free token from yesterday's SotD faller to us up, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering... here for the betting on the 2.55 Doncaster

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Here is today's racecard.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th November 2015

      1. Everyone calls me Paul

        suspect Gallou is talking about 365 at 7/2, but there are other bookies, mate (Stans were 11/2 when posted). It’s a big competitive field but it is a slightly strange looking market. I put half a point on at Betfair last night at 7.2 but decided to see what the score was this morning for the remainder. Just put it on at 11/2 at Victors…could still get a 10% premium on the exchanges, but may still drift, yet. Am also on Lahayeb and Pandora, so could be expensive!

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Yes, Paul, I thought the same, but I never even mentioned Bet365!
          I used Coral as everyone who used them yesterday should and Stan James were 11/2, but I rarely use them the day before racing as they’re non-BOG until 10.00am.


          PS Get your self on the permed tricast 😀

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