Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

Saturday's Runner was...

6.20 Doncaster : Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on same pace, no chance with front pair when lost 3rd well inside final furlong)

We start the new week with Monday's...

4.35 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Airshow @ 7/2 BOG

A 9-runner, Class 4,  5.5f Flat Handicap (3yo) on good to firm (good in places) ground worth £5387 to the winner... 

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has a record in handicaps reading 3311 and therefore comes here on a hat-trick after a win at Kempton 24 days ago. No prior run at 5.5f, but he has two wins at 6f, he also has a runner-up finish and a win from two races with today's jockey Oisin Murphy, he's a former Class 3 winner and when ditching the hood (0 from 6 with it), he has 2 wins and a place from three runs.

Trainer Rod Millman + LTO winners + 2016-18 = 16/61 (26.2% SR) for 29.8pts (+48.9% ROI) from which handicappers are 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.2%), including...

  • 11-45 days since last run : 15/46 (32.6%) for 33.4pts (72.6%)
  • at odds of 10/1 and shorter : 16/45 (35.6%) for 45.8pts (+101.8%)
  • on the Flat (turf) : 12/43 (27.9%) for 17.8pts (+41.4%)
  • on Good/Good to Firm ground : 10/31 (32.3%) for 18.6pts (+60%)
  • over trips shorter than 9f : 11/26 (42.3%) for 38.7pts (+148.7%)
  • 3 yr olds  : 7/20 (35%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/19 (21.1%) for 5.67pts (+29.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.9pts (+44.6%)
  • those ridden by Oisin Murphy are 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.2pts (+135.3%)
  • and here at Bath : 1/3 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+90.7%)

And speaking of Bath handicaps, Rod's overall record in those stands at 13/74 (17.6% SR) for 75.9pts (+102.6% ROI) since the start of 2014, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 10/52 (19.2%) for 43.4pts (+83.4%)
  • males are 9/39 (23.1%) for 44.3pts (+113.5%)
  • in May : 3/16 (18.75%) for 8.78pts (+54.9%)
  • and at Class 4 : 2/10 (20%) for 3.27pts (+32.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Airshow @ 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Sunday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.35 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th May 2018

  1. oscarbriso

    This service is struggling at the moment. Five winners out of 24 during the month of April and May has started with a blank week already. I really hope it goes back to the performance we had before that and we can go back to winning ways soon.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Yeah, really struggling.
      A near 21% strike rate and profit in a notoriously difficult month (April).
      Eight consecutive months of profit etc etc

      1 bad week and people like you come out of the woodwork. Funny how we only hear from most readers when I’ve had a poor week.

      If you think SotD is struggling, then following someone else’s picks rather than choosing your own is clearly not for you.

  2. Blueeyes

    Still the best in the business. I have been following you for three years and showing a healthy profit.
    I do not expect constant winners. Keep up the good work.

  3. oscarbriso

    Dont be so touchy mate. I dont mean to be disrespectfull nor to undermine your great efforts and service here. Im just pointing out my personal results and experience since I joined the service at the end of January. The experience has been possitive and I cant complain but it is worse now than when I started hence I said what I did. Feb +8pts March +19pts April -3pts and May so far -5pts. These are my personal results and records. If I didnt value the service I wouldnt be here but I think it is fair to show some concern given the progress in time and my timeframe with the service. If I offended anyone here I appologize. Good day everyone.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Touchy? Not at all.
      Bored of negativity, certainly.

      You’re 19pts up according to your records in a shade over 3 months.
      All tipping services have peaks and troughs, we’re merely experiencing a reversion towards our historical strike rate/ROI.

    2. Paul Kendall

      With all due respect to everyone, if you have any concerns, @oscarbriso, then don’t follow SotD. I cannot for the life of me see how expressing your concerns in this ‘forum’ will make the slightest difference to how Chris makes his selections. He’s not doing this for anyone’s approval!

  4. Blokeshead

    I’ve joked on this site before that Chris could come up with a system that makes a point each and every day for 30 days but then, on the 31st, loses a couple of points, at which time someone would come out of the woodwork and sagely observe that he’d lost it.

    But perhaps I wasn’t really joking?

    You don’t have to dig very far to see that SotD has been consistently profitable for a period of years. In that time, it’s had a lot of losing days, a lot of losing weeks, and a few losing months. But anyone who has stuck with it since they joined is up, and well up, unless they joined a week ago (in which case I’d have some sympathy but say “Look at the history” and urge them to be patient).

    I’m up hundreds of points, as are many other members. My only “complaint” is that I have one and only one BOGs bookmaker left because I’ve consistently won (not least by often beating SP) from the others, largely due to Chris and his work. That’s a problem, but “You’ve won too much money sir, kindly get lost!” is a nice problem to have.

    I’m guessing every person on this site would love to find a system or a tipster (or both) that wins every day. However, we all know that’s not possible, so we look for one who wins every week. Alas, that’s not possible either, so we look for one who wins every month. I would argue that even that is not possible – if anyone knows of a system/tipster who has never had a losing month, I have just two things to say:
    a. Could you please email me the details?
    b. Why on earth do you bother looking at any other sites, e.g. this one?

    Chris takes the digs every time he has a rough week or two on the chin, and those of us who look up to him and look forward to his SotD for tomorrow are grateful that he does so. I fear the day that one finally penetrates his rhino hide. What happens then? I assume he’ll just quit – I know I would. Those of us who are up a lot of points will be very sad indeed on that day. The handful of people who have grumbled at him over the years, however, can cheerfully add another successful kill to their score and move on to the next poor sod. Until, of course, the day comes when they find that service that never loses. Alas, I fear they will be six feet under themselves before that day arrives.

    Chris, if I were you, I’d close the comments after SotD. It would get rid of this issue once and for all. But I assume Matt wants transparency, so that’s not an option? I bet I’m not the only one here who thinks it’s not a bad idea? If nothing else, it would give you a little less work to do!

    I started penning this in a fit of pique, and only planned to write a couple of lines. Sorry to bore everyone to tears, and sorry too for any errors; I really can’t be bothered to proofread it. Now I have to go and put tomorrow’s bet on. The temptation to increase my stakes, based on what has traditionally happened as soon as someone takes potshots at Chris, is huge, but thankfully I’ve been around for long enough (too long!) to resist.

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