Stat of the Day, 7th January 2016
Tuesday's Result :
12.30 Chelmsford : Kristal Hart @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Led, hard pressed over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on, headed and no extra final 50 yards)
Wednesday's runner goes in the...
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Chankillo @ 3/1 BOG
There's a distinct possibility that in my recent quest to get back to winning regularly, that I've over-egged the pudding somewhat of late and that I've possibly been a little too complicated in my approach. That might not be the case, of course, but nevertheless, back to basics today.
Trainer Sarah-Jayne Davies is the focus here (some might ask who?) and she's possibly better known in PTP circles, which of course lends itself to success over fences with stamina-laden horses.
And as an exponent of PTP racing, Sarah-Jayne doesn't have too many runners under Rules, but one area she seems to focus on is the Class 5 handicap chase. And over the last three years, her 6 to 10 yr olds (all male) are 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 19.6pts (+41.7% ROI) on non-figure of eight tracks.
Of those 47 runners...
- those priced at evens to 15/2 are 10/25 (40% SR) for 21.2pts (+84.8% ROI)
- those running at today's trip of 16.5f are 7/20 (35% SR) for 24.3pts (+121.5% ROI)
- LTO winners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 2.55pts (+31.9% ROI)
- those who won by 4 lengths or more LTO are 3/6 (50% SR) for 4.55pts (+75.9% ROI)
Chankillo has finished 1251 in his last four starts and comes here off the back of a 14 length success at Market Rasen in a higher grade on Boxing Day, the runner-up has since won (Saturday) at Ayr at Class 4, whilst the fourth placed horse, who was 30 lengths behind Chankillo was also a winner this week, when landing a Class 3 contest at Musselburgh on Monday.
And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.30pm is...
A 1pt win bet on Chankillo and that's at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but won't go BOG until morning. Once the market has fully formed, however, you can always...
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