Stat of the Day, 7th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2016

Tuesday's Result :

12.30 Chelmsford : Kristal Hart @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Led, hard pressed over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on, headed and no extra final 50 yards)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

1.05 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chankillo @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

There's a distinct possibility that in my recent quest to get back to winning regularly, that I've over-egged the pudding somewhat of late and that I've possibly been a little too complicated in my approach. That might not be the case, of course, but nevertheless, back to basics today.

Trainer Sarah-Jayne Davies is the focus here (some might ask who?) and she's possibly better known in PTP circles, which of course lends itself to success over fences with stamina-laden horses.

And as an exponent of PTP racing, Sarah-Jayne doesn't have too many runners under Rules, but one area she seems to focus on is the Class 5 handicap chase. And over the last three years, her 6 to 10 yr olds (all male) are 11 from 47 (23.4% SR) for 19.6pts (+41.7% ROI) on non-figure of eight tracks.

Of those 47 runners...

  • those priced at evens to 15/2 are 10/25 (40% SR) for 21.2pts (+84.8% ROI)
  • those running at today's trip of 16.5f are 7/20 (35% SR) for 24.3pts (+121.5% ROI)
  • LTO winners are 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 2.55pts (+31.9% ROI)
  • those who won by 4 lengths or more LTO are 3/6 (50% SR) for 4.55pts (+75.9% ROI)

Chankillo has finished 1251 in his last four starts and comes here off the back of a 14 length success at Market Rasen in a higher grade on Boxing Day, the runner-up has since won (Saturday) at Ayr at Class 4, whilst the fourth placed horse, who was 30 lengths behind Chankillo was also a winner this week, when landing a Class 3 contestĀ  at Musselburgh on Monday.

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.30pm is...

A 1pt win bet onĀ Chankillo and that's at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 and/or BetVictor, whilst Ladbrokes offer the same, but won't go BOG until morning. Once the market has fully formed, however, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

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