Stat of the Day, 7th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

3.05 Southwell : Foolaad @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/10 Always prominent, every chance over 1f out, led well inside final furlong, stayed on well to win by a neck...

We continue with Wednesday's...

2.25 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 7, 7f handicap on Polytrack worth £2,264 to the winner...

Why?

Trainer Anthony Carson's A/W handicappers are 13 from 87 (14.9% SR) for 73.56pts (+84.6% ROI) since the start of 2016 and these include of relevance today...

  • over 7f : 7/38 (18.4%) for 43.77pts (+115.2%)
  • ridden by William Carson : 6/37 (16.2%) for 49.09pts (+132.7%)
  • January to March : 5/35 (14.3%) for 26.88pts (+76.8%)
  • in fields of 9-10 runners : 6/28 (21.4%) for 77.01pts (+275%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/17 (23.5%) for 16.57pts (+97.5%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 2 lengths LTO are 3/14 (21.4%) for 24.27pts (+173.4%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 4/11 (36.4%) for 41.37pts (+376.1%)

...whilst more generally since 2013 in UK A/W handicaps, horses running over 6f to 1m2f just 2 to 5 days after a win or a defeat by less than 3 lengths are 222/863 (25.7% SR) for 238.11pts (+27.6%), from which...

  • those last seen 5 days ago : 84/307 (27.4%) for 108.1pts (+35.2%)
  • over 7f : 63/248 (25.4%) for 73.69pts (+29.7%)
  • 5 yr olds are 40/154 (26%) for 46.23pts (+30%)

AND...5 yr olds racing over 7f, 5 days after their last outing in which they either won or were beaten by less than 3 lengths = 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 17.82pts (+118.8% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mossys Lodge @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th February 2018

  1. Blokeshead

    Wow. BSP 6.77. And he was over 7.0 on Betfair just before the off – not sure how high he went? Anyway…

    Great call again, Chris. Doesn’t seem to make any difference to your horses if the market halves their odds (see yesterday) or almost doubles them (see today).

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