Stat of the Day, 6th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2013

No joy yesterday as Paradise Watch was outpaced and could only manage 6th place from the 12 runners, having been sent off as the 4/1 joint favourite, slightly shorter than our advised 9/2 early price.

From the North West to the North East today for the...

4.10 Newcastle

Where I have a whole host of stats to back up today's (surprising to some, no doubt!) selection, Life And Times.

Life And Times is trained by Mark Johnston and will be ridden by Franny Norton and the first stat I'd like you to consider is the record when Mr Norton rides for Mr Johnston. In the last three seasons Franny has ridden 181 horses for Mark that have been sent off at 6/1 or under ie general SotD territory.  Of the 181, 47 of them have been returned as winners with the 25.97% strike rate manifesting itself as 34.53pts profit, or 19.1% of stakes. Not a bad starting point for today's piece.

Life And Times makes his debut for mark Johnston today, after just outing on the flat for Mahmood Al Zarooni and one attempt over hurdles for John Ferguson. Mark has a very good record with horses on their yard debut that have already had racecourse experience (good or bad!) elsewhere. In the last three seasons, 15 out of 48 horses have won from those he has given a yard debut to after receiving them from another trainer.

This 31.25% strike rate for 41.53pts (+86.52%) return is bettered by ignoring those unfancied in the market, as all 11 runners priced above 8/1 have been beaten, leaving a record at 8/1 or under of 15/37 (40.54%) for 52.53pts (+141.97% ROI).

Life And Times has now been off the track for the best part of 4 months (110 days to be exact), but the Johnston yard also has a good record at getting horses to fire after a fairly sizeable break. Since the start of the 2011 season, their record with horses coming off a break of 2 to 8 months is 60 winners from 365 runners. And whilst a 16.44% strike rate isn't earth shattering, the modest 32pts (8.76% ROI) is still worth having as a blind bet with no odds or course filter.

However, we can and should refine those figures further: 52 of those 60 winners came from the horses sent off between 13/8 and 12/1 and this improves the strike rate to a decent 21% and the profits also rise accordingly to a more than respectable 89.94pts, or 36.27% of stakes invested.

The best results from that group came from horses running after a break of 2 to 6 months and today's selection falls smack in the middle of that range whose record reads 45 winners (SR of 22.84%) from 197 runners for 100.38pts (+50.95% ROI) profits, of which 8 out of 26 won on their debut for Mark Johnston: a 30.77% strike rate for 33.34pts (+128.23% ROI) profit.

And finally, as this is a Newcastle maiden event, I'd like to just throw in Mark Johnston's record in non-handicap races here at Newcastle: 12 of the 47 runners priced under 8/1 have won: a 25.53% strike rate producing 6.97pts profit. That's admittedly a modest return of just 14.83% of stakes, but I'd be happy to make that on a regular basis!

Although, there's a swathe of stats to support the selection today, there's not a great deal of form to talk about. After all, this is a 5yr old horse, making only his third start, and just his second on the flat.

Life And Times showed lots of promise when finishing 5th in a hot Newbury maiden as a 2yr old for Godolphin way back in July 2010. All four horses in front of him that day all went on to win fairly soon after that contest, as have 8 of the 12 horses who finished behind him.

What happened after that race is unclear, but he didn't reappear until almost 3 years later when he was a disappointing 3rd of 7 when sent off as the 11/10 favourite in a 2m1f hurdle contest at Market Rasen in May of this year. He pulled too hard that day and was reported to have had a breathing problem.

His breeding suggests that he should be a player at this kind of trip and this race isn't that good to be honest. So, if he could repeat his form from his sole outing on the flat, there's no reason why he couldn't take the spoils today.

I do, however, realise that there's a lot of conjecture, coulds, shoulds and ifs in those two paragraphs above, but they are going to help us get a reasonable price for our bet today.

What isn't doubtful, though, is the bank of stats I've quoted, plus the fact that his debut race has produced 12 winners from the 16 rivals he faced. The presence of an odds on favourite Llanarmon Lad will also help our quest for value today. The favourite does, indeed, have the best form in the pack, but he's far too short for my liking at 10/11 or shorter.

So, all this leaves me with a 1pt win bet on Life And Times at 7/2 BOG with BetVictor and I'd expect this price to contract during the day.  As always, to see what your preferred outlet are offering, simply...

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