Stat of the Day, 6th March 2018

Monday's Result :

3.45 Lingfield : Remiluc @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 Keen tracked leaders, ridden 2 out, chased winner approaching last, kept on one pace and beaten by four lengths.

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG

A Class 5, 5f handicap on fibresand worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

Eight runs this year already for this 6 yr old gelding, but never out of the first three home. He won three of the eight and four of the five defeats were by half a length or less, so he's bang in form and today's jockey Ali Rawlinson was in the saddle for all three wins.

This horse now has 2 wins and 3 places from 5 runs on this track, all over today's minimum 5f trip and he's won twice and placed once from three with Ali Rawlinson over course and distance.

He's trained locally (less than 30 miles South of here) by Mick Appleby who has an excellent record at this venue particularly in Class 2 to 5 handicaps with horses priced at 6/1 and shorter. Such runners are more prevalent than you'd imagine and are 74 from 238 (31.1% SR) for 69pts (+29% ROI) profit since the start of 2013, including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 70/218 (32.1%) for 62.86pts (+28.8%)
  • males : 55/179 (30.7%) for 56.09pts (+31.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 48/156 (30.8%) for 51.11pts (+32.8%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 44/137 (32.1%) for 46.84pts (+34.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 43/133 (32.3%) for 48.62pts (+36.6%)
  • ridden by Ali Rawlinson : 22/68 (32.4%) for 20.52pts (+30.2%)
  • and over this 5f track and trip : 10/29 (34.5%) for 9.64pts (+33.3%)

AND...3-7 yr old males running at Class 5, 6-25 days since a top 3 finish LTO are 15/35 (42.9% SR) for 30.5pts (+87.1% ROI), from which...

  • Ali Rawlinson is 4/10 (40%) for 4.48pts (+44.8%)
  • over 5f : 2/4 (50%) for 6.46pts (+161.4%)
  • and with Ali over 5f = 1/1, when today's horse, Something Lucky, won here at an SP of 11/4 almost six weeks ago!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Something Lucky @ 2/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Sunbets at 4.40pm on Monday. Bet365 were, however, offering 5/2 BOG and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 6th March 2018

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks, Ian.
      A bit shorter than I’m generally comfortable with, but when you’re committed to providing a selection and there’s only one poor card in front of you, you have to compromise occasionally. That said, it did prove you can still find value at the short end of the market.

  1. seng84

    Thanks again. Any chance of getting some notification- twitter maybe when the stat is out. Missed out on the 5/2…all these half points add up!
    Thanks again

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      A notification goes out on Twitter and facebook as soon as I go live.
      As for the 5/2, that wasn’t the advised price, so you didn’t miss half a point.
      2/1 was the advised price, 5/2 was only offered in 1 place, so can’t be used for my figures.

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