Stat of the Day, 6th June 2017

Monday's Result :

8.10 Windsor : Blitz @ 11/2 BOG (2.2/1 after 60p R4) WON at 11/8 Chased leader on outside, switched right to near side rail approaching halfway, challenged 2f out, ridden to lead 1f out, joined final furlong, won on the head bob.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.40 Wetherby...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Apollo @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago over 6f at Doncaster in this grade and in similar ground conditions to today, before then taking 193 days off track.

He returned to action at York 20 days ago up in class and on unsuitably soft ground, yet despite this he still ran a very creditable 4th of 14, beaten by just over 4 lengths.

Now back on quicker/better ground, back down in class and with the benefit of having had a run, better can be expected today.

As for the numbers... here's the microsystem that alerted me to this horse...

...2012-17 / Flat / 5f to 1m / 3 to 5 yrs old / 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO 16-60 days ago / won two starts ago....

It really isn't as complicated as it looks in print, and in almost five and a half years this angle has found 315 winners from 1788 (17.6% SR) qualifiers returning level stakes profits of 394.6pts at betfair SP at an ROI of 22.1% and using BOG odds, would fare even better!

Yet, I appreciate that not everyone wants to place 300-350 bets per season on one angle, so we can refine the selections as follows...

  • On good ground or quicker : 211/1150 (18.3%) for 321.6pts (+28%)
  • last run 20-30 days ago : 158/832 (19%) for 249.3pts (+30%)
  • at Class 4 : 73/392 (18.6%) for 109.6pts (+28%)
  • in the month of June : 75/339 (22.1%) for 139.1pts (+41%)
  • and those beaten by 4 to 10 lengths LTO are 53/329 (16.1%) for 137.3pts (+41.7%)

AND...if you wanted to combine some of the above factors into a smaller micro that had around 20-25 bets a season, you could do worse than Good ground or quicker / Classes 3 & 4 / 20 to 30 days since last run / June to August as this gives 36 winners from 127 (28.4% SR) for 113.4pts (+89.3% ROI)

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Golden Apollo11/2 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfred/Totesport, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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