Stat of the Day, 6th January 2016

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2016

Monday's Result :

1.40 Southwell : Westwood Hoe @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Led 1f, remained prominent, every chance over 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)

Tuesday's runner goes in the...

12.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kristal Hart @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare is a former course and distance winner with three wins from nine races over today's 10f trip, has won three times from seven under today's jockey Liam Keniry and hails from the in-form yard of Neil Mulholland, who in the last eight weeks is 18/103 (17.5% SR) for 23pts (+22.4% ROI) profit.

On the All-Weather in that time frame, he has 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR) for 49.6pts (+381.9% ROI) with a 6 from 11 (54.6% SR) record at Class 6 generating 36.4pts at an ROI of 330.9%, whilst his A/W handicappers are 6 from 10 for 38.1pts (+380.7% ROI). And of the 13 runners, Liam Keniry has 5 wins from 7 (71.4% SR) for 38pts (+542.7% ROI)

Neil Mulholland is one of a rare selection of trainers who are profitable to follow in two codes, namely NH and A/W and if you backed all of his runners over the last three years from both codes, you'd have backed 158 winners from 1021 runners at a strike rate of 15.5% and a £10 wager on each of them would have netted you a cool £2808.70 at an ROI of 27.5%.

Of those 1021 runners, those running on the A/W are 26/111 (23.4% SR) for 103.4pts (+93.1% ROI) which (with today's contest firmly in mind) can be further analysed as follows...

  • handicappers are 22/80 (27.5% SR) for 110.8pts (+138.6% ROI)
  • those running 4 to 45 days since their last outing are 21/80 (26.3% SR) for 98.8pts (+123.5% ROI)
  • Class 6/7 runners are 19/70 (27.1% SR) for 93.3pts (+133.2% ROI)
  • those with a rating of 45 to 68 are 19/68 (27.9% SR) for 117.1pts (+172.1% ROI)
  • those ridden by Liam Keniry are 18/65 (27.7% SR) for 110.9pts (+170.6% ROI)
  • over distances of 8.5f to 12f : 16/64 (25% SR) for 90pts (+140.6% ROI)
  • 6/7 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5% SR) for 67.4pts (+168.4% ROI)

And a slightly broader micro-system based on the above categories is: 3 to 8 yrs old in Class 5/6 handicaps over 8.5f to 16.5f on the A/W off marks of 45 to 68 within 7 weeks of their last run. Such horses are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 115.7pts (+373.4% ROI) over the last three years with Liam Keniry riding 11 winners from 20 (55% SR) for 122.1pts at an ROI of some 610.5%!

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.40pm is...

A 1pt win bet on Kristal Hart and that's at 7/2 BOG with any one of a half dozen or so firms all quoting the same price, but for your preferred bookies' offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 6th January 2016

  1. jethro

    Hard luck Chris! Apart from Jethou Island having a name similar to my log-in, I would never have backed that winner in a million years. It’s always disappointing when you correctly pick the best of those with form; only to be undone by an apparent no-hoper who decides to run the race of its life! Our luck must change sooner or later – really hope it’s the former! Cheers…

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