Stat of the Day, 6th February 2016

Friday's Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Perfect Cracker @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 2f out, led over 1f out, headed well inside final furlong, no impression close home, beaten by a length)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.45 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native River @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Native River has 5 wins from just 10 attempts over obstacles and has finished 3113 in his four races over fences. To date, his 10 outings have yielded the following results...

  • 5 from 9 under Brendan Powell (2/4 in chases)
  • 4 wins and 2 places from 7 in races of 1 to 7 runners (2 wins, 2 places from 4 over fences)
  • 2 wins from 4 on soft (1/1 in chases)
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 over 3 miles (1 win, 1 place from 2 3m chases)
  • 1 from 2 at grade 2 (1/1 over fences)

So conditions look ideal for Native River today and he's best in at the weights, officially rated at 153, he's the class horse here and Colin Tizzard has no hesitation in sending him almost 300 miles to Wetherby when both Sandown and Ffos Las offered closer options.

Mind you, Colin does well with his winter travellers, as since the start of 2102, those NH runners sent over 200 miles to race in the winter months (ie October to March) have won 16 of 49 (32.7% SR) for 59.1pts (+120.6% ROI) level stakes profits and before I drill down into those runners, I'll just tell you that all of them are males!

49 runners isn't the largest sample size I've broughtr you, but even so, it does throw up a whole host of profitable angles and I'm going to give you a dozen that are all relevant today...

  • those priced at 12/1 and shorter : 16/41 (39%SR) for 67.1pts (+163.7% ROI)
  • chasers are 11/38 (29% SR) for 32.6pts (+85.9% ROI)
  • those competing at 2m3.5f to 3m1f are 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 58.6pts (+158.5% ROI)
  • top 6 finishers LTO are 16/36 (44.4% SR) for 72.1pts (+200.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 11/30 (36.7% SR) for 53.4pts (+178.1% ROI)
  • those competing for prizes of less than £13k : 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 31.9pts (+132.7% ROI)
  • soft ground : 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 49.4pts (+259.8% ROI)
  • non-hcps : 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 27.8pts (+154.2% ROI)
  • ridden by Brendan Powell : 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 31.9pts (+212.8% ROI)
  • Class 1 : 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 25.9pts (+172.5% ROI)
  • Novices : 4/10 (40% SR) for 12.44pts (+124.4% ROI)
  • here at Wetherby : 3/5 (60% SR) for 10.14pts (+202.8% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 10.15pm is...

A 1pt bet on Native River and that's at 7/2 BOG from any of Betfair SB, Coral, Hills and/or Racebets, whilst Stan James offer the same, but are non-BOG until 10.00am on racedays, so to pick your preferred bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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