Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013
Another disappointment for us yesterday as Mazovian seemed to go off too hard in a bid to hit the front early on and eventually flattened out mid-race, trailing home ahead of only two others in a nine-runner race. The only bright spot was the fact that some of you got on at 16/1, some at 10/1 and the official line was 9/1, so we all managed to beat the market: SP was 7/1.
It's the late, late show today as we wait for the last race of the day. It's a Class 5, 6 furlong handicap on the Polytrack, as 12 runners are set to contest the...
Garry Monk isn't often seen down at Kempton. In fact, he has only sent five runners in 2012/3, which is less than 10% of his 52 entrants in that time. He seems to have preferred the tracks at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, sending 24 of those 52 horses there.
His record here at Kempton in that time is pretty good and I'd expect him to continue that today. Despite only being represented five times, he has saddled up two winners at 11/2 and 7/2, as well as a 4/1 runner-up. It is admittedly a small sample size, but all those runs have occurred in the last 14 weeks, so Kempton seems to be a place he feels he can get a result from, if the race is carefully selected. The five races have made a small, but welcome 6pts profit for win bets and E/W backers have made 7.5pts. All very handy off a small number of bets.
As Garry's only run five horses here in 14 weeks, he's hardly likely to come here mob handed and today is no exception: just the runner for him this evening and that's the horse responsible for the 7/2 win I mentioned earlier, Lucky Mark.
Lucky Mark appreciated the drop back in trip to today's 6f when he dominated the field from start to finish over Course & Distance last time out. He had Lady Prodee behind him when winning that day and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, he should confirm that form today.
I appreciate the extra weight will be a factor but any repeat of that last showing some thirteen days ago will give him a decent chance in his bid for a third win in six outings on Polytrack this winter. The fact that he has also won over 7f this winter should stand him in good stead too, when it comes to stamina in case he has to grind out a result.
That C&D win was his only race here at Kempton, so he defends an unbeaten record, I suppose and if things fall his way, he has every opportunity to extend that short sequence.
He might not have it all his own way and it will be interesting to see what happens if he can't control the race. That minor doubt allied to the rise in weights says that an E/W bet is a sensible option, so today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Lucky Mark at 13/2 BOG with William Hill (as of 10.10am), but you really should...