Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013

Stat of the Day: 06/02/13

Stat of the Day: 06/02/13

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013

Another disappointment for us yesterday as Mazovian seemed to go off too hard in a bid to hit the front early on and eventually flattened out mid-race, trailing home ahead of only two others in a nine-runner race. The only bright spot was the fact that some of you got on at 16/1, some at 10/1 and the official line was 9/1, so we all managed to beat the market: SP was 7/1.

It's the late, late show today as we wait for the last race of the day. It's a Class 5, 6 furlong handicap on the Polytrack, as 12 runners are set to contest the...

8.05 Kempton

Garry Monk isn't often seen down at Kempton. In fact, he has only sent five runners in 2012/3, which is less than 10% of his 52 entrants in that time. He seems to have preferred the tracks at Lingfield and Wolverhampton, sending 24 of those 52 horses there.

His record here at Kempton in that time is pretty good and I'd expect him to continue that today. Despite only being represented five times, he has saddled up two winners at 11/2 and 7/2, as well as a 4/1 runner-up. It is admittedly a small sample size, but all those runs have occurred in the last 14 weeks, so Kempton seems to be a place he feels he can get a result from, if the race is carefully selected. The five races have made a small, but welcome 6pts profit for win bets and E/W backers have made 7.5pts. All very handy off a small number of bets.

As Garry's only run five horses here in 14 weeks, he's hardly likely to come here mob handed and today is no exception: just the runner for him this evening and that's the horse responsible for the 7/2 win I mentioned earlier, Lucky Mark.

Lucky Mark appreciated the drop back in trip to today's 6f when he dominated the field from start to finish over Course & Distance  last time out. He had Lady Prodee behind him when winning that day and despite a 5lb rise in the weights, he should confirm that form today.

I appreciate the extra weight will be a factor but any repeat of that last showing some thirteen days ago will give him a decent chance in his bid for a third win in six outings on Polytrack this winter. The fact that he has also won over 7f this winter should stand him in good stead too, when it comes to stamina in case he has to grind out a result.

That C&D win was his only race here at Kempton, so he defends an unbeaten record, I suppose and if things fall his way, he has every opportunity to extend that short sequence.

He might not have it all his own way and it will be interesting to see what happens if he can't control the race. That minor doubt allied to the rise in weights says that an E/W bet is a sensible option, so today's play is  a 0.5pts E/W bet on Lucky Mark at 13/2 BOG with William Hill (as of 10.10am), but you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 8.05 Kempton

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 6th February 2013

  1. Martin G

    Usual excellent research and write up Chris,just a little bit wary that the Racing Post betting forecast has the horse @4/1 but Hills now offering 7/1 drifted slightly from13/2. Thanks for your efforts ,much appreciated

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Martin,
      Thanks for the kind words. I was expecting around 11/2 or slightly shorter and the market seems to now be settling at the 5 to 6 mark. I’m very confident of at least a place which itself guarantees us a small 30%+ profit on the day with a “free” 0.5pt win bet.


    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Thomas,
      It was posted at 10.10 this morning and it’s right underneath the Punting Confessional in the centre column of the homepage.


  2. thomas

    got this through free tips drop down and not showing on home page,also this is sowing no comments through tips page and this is what i see on home page

    Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 Next

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I think it’s a problem at your end. It shows up on 2 PCs, my Ipad, my laptop and my phone at this end.
      Perhaps you need to refresh your browser / clear you cache/cookies etc.

  3. Johnny5

    Good luck tonight Chris …
    Unusual late posting for you rather than early nightowl hours !
    Unfortunately a small 10p rule 4 to stomach – hence why the market has contracted and is now 11/2 generally
    Best Johnny

  4. Steve Colliety

    The Web site seems to be stuck in a time warp. When I type in I keep ending up on the 6th February. When I enter the site through your recent e-mail I end up on the 7th Feb. Any help would be appriciated

      1. Steve Colliety

        Not blaming you Matt in fact I’d like to commend you on the website. It’s just these damned computers. However, have spoken to IT man and he has cleaned up my cookies (The only way I know how to clean up my cookies is with a cup of tea) which has solved my problem.

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