Stat of the Day, 6th December 2013
I was quietly confident about Boogangoo's chances yesterday, despite his drift in the market from our advised 4/1 out to an SP of 6/1.
He started well and grabbed the rail just behind the leaders who he tracked until 2f out. Once a gap appeared, he moved forward to contest matters and looked to have every chance approaching the furlong pole, but unfortunately that's where the race ended for all of us.
It seemed like he'd lost his action and was quickly eased down from a racing sprint, eventually trooping home the last of the six runners, eight lengths off the winner, Groovejet, who I had highlighted as the main danger.
And if at first you don't succeed, you really should try again. So, with this in mind, we're having another crack a finding a Dunstall Park winner in the...
It's a real case of one extreme to the other today, as we moved from the lightly raced 2yr old Boogangoo from yesterday to a 10yr old veteran of some 68 races, as we're going with One Way or Another.
This horse has certainly done the rounds and is a triple course winner, including a course and distance win in a similar race to this back in February and he comes here in a bit of revival in form, with two wins in his last three runs.
His trainer David Evans has certainly got his string in fine fettle at present with nine of his last thirteen runners making the frame, three of them returning as winners, so another decent run is expected today.
David has an excellent recent record in these claiming races. 23 of his 80 runners, priced at 12/1 or under, in claimers since the start of 2011 have gone on to win with the 28.8% strike rate producing level stakes profits of 44.7pts, or 55.9% of stakes invested.
Mr Evans also tends to enjoy success from his more fancied runners here at Wolverhampton. In that same 2011/13 timeframe, 47 of his 195 runners sent off at odds of 6/1 or under have been victorious. That's an excellent 24.1% strike rate over a large sample size and has been able to reward the yard's followers with profits of 36.4pts, an ROI of 18.7%.
One Way or Another will be partnered by the talented Eoin Walsh for the sixth time today and Eoin was on board for those two recent victories and is sure to put his 5lb claim to good use.
For a jockey so early into his riding career, Eoin seems to have got a real grip on how to ride this track at Wolverhampton, having steered home 10 winners from the 30 horses he has ridden at odds of 12/1 or under. A one in three strike is absolutely fantastic for any jockey, never mind a 5lb claimer and those 10 wins have been reflected in monetary terms to the tune of 35.92pts, more than doubling the punters' money with a rate of return at almost 120%.
So, the horse has course form, the yard's in form, the trainer has success in this type of race and at the track and the jockey fares well here. All of which hopefully bodes well for a victory today. So, with this in mind, it's a 1pt win bet on One Way Or Another at 7/2 BOG. I've put my shilling down with Bet365, but as it's quite widely available this morning, you really should...