Stat of the Day, 6th April 2016

Tuesday's Result :

3.35 Newton Abbot: Winged Express @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Another value pick at 127.3% of SP, but beaten by 3.5 lengths having chased leaders, 3rd after 2nd, challenged and hit 2 out, driven into narrow lead between last 2, headed before last, one pace and no impression on winner run-in)

Wednesday's runner goes in the...

7.45 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Street Duel @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Very interesting one here from Mark Johnston's yard to be ridden by the in-form Silvestre de Sousa. This 3yr olt colt finished his 2yo season with three runner-up finishes on the bounce but returned to action three weeks ago after a break of 203 days to win convincingly by 4.5 lengths at Southwell over 7 furlongs, so he's bang on form straight away.

He can be expected to improve further for having had the run and is now stepped up in trip by 4f to run here on his handciap debut, but the step up shouldn't faze him, as he's a half-brother to the 2010 St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos and there's plenty of stamina in his breeding.

As I mentioned briefly a moment ago, Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride today and after winning 9 races from 32 (28.1% SR) over the last fortnight, that's another positive for us. Mind you, Mark Johnston's not hanging about either and since the last day of February, his horses have won 16 of 67 (23.9% SR).

And since the start of 2011, the Johnston / de Sousa alliance is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 9pts (+16.4%ROI) in handicap contests here at Kempton, from which...

  • those runners priced at 13/2 and shorter are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 9.18pts (+28.7% ROI)
  • those reappearing 6 to 25 days after their last run are 8/32 (25% SR) for 10.58pts (+33.1% ROI)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 9/31 (29% SR) for 18.48pts (+59.6% ROI)
  • and LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9% SR) for 3.95pts (+28.2% ROI)

OR a slightly different angle is Class 3 to 5 horses priced at 13/2 or shorter, 11 to 25 days after their last run are 7/12 (58.3% SR) for 19.8pts (+164.6% ROI), from which LTO winners are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 8.17pts (+136.1% ROI).

We should also consider Mark Johnston's success at stepping horses up in tip for their handicap debut, because since 2008 with runners priced at 6/1 and shorter, he's had 65 winners from 232 (28% SR) producing a modest overall profit of 17.7pts at an ROI of 7.6% and whilst that return is lower than I'm generally happy with for SotD, it does provide a platform for some decent betting angles, such as...

  • males are 56/173 (32.4% SR) for 36.1pts (+20.9% ROI)
  • 3yr olds are 50/151 (33.1% SR) for 33pts (+21.8% ROI)
  • in 3yo races : 40/114 (35.1% SR) for 27.4pts (+24.1% ROI)
  • at trips of 1m2f to 1m5f : 29/83 (34.9% SR) for 30.6pts (+36.8% ROI)
  • on the A/W  : 26/78 (33.3% SR) for 6.93pts (+8.9% ROI)
  • those who raced over 7f LTO : 19/57 (33.3% SR) for 21.6pts (+38% ROI)
  • at Class 3 : 11/36 (30.6% SR) for 10.14pts (+28.2% ROI)
  • those ridden by Silvestre de Sousa are 11/33 (33.3% SR) for 13.9pts (+42% ROI)
  • and those stepped up in class by 3f or more are 9/22 (40.9% SR) for 16.1pts (+73.1% ROI)

AND 3 yr old males are 44/118 (37.3% SR) for 38.5pts (+32.6% ROI) with Silvestre de Sousa riding 7 winners from 14 (50% SR) for 16.3pts (+116.5% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Street Duel at 100/30 BOG with Paddy Power who were the standout price at 7.10pm, but there was plenty of 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Kempton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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