Stat of the Day, 5th September 2012
The Tregoning/Turner partnership had a reasonable day yesterday with both Gilded Frame and our selection Konstantin finishing second. I'd advised a 13/2 BOG E/W play yesterday, but our horse drifted quite badly in the market and went off as a 12/1 shot. Hayley seemed to have timed the run to perfection and we were looking at a nice 7.5pts profit. In fact, Konstantin traded as low as 1.03 in running, so I'm sure some of our trading fraternity jumped out at that stage! Unfortunately we were caught close to home, but still doubled our money on the day.
We now seek to make it three profitable days in a row by heading to Britain's highest flat racecourse (780 feet above sea level, in case anyone's interested) for a Class 5 Handicap. the ground is good to firm and we're expecting 12 runners to tackle a trip a shade short of six furlongs in the...
I'll start by saying there's no double chance or saver today, as our selection is the trainer's sole entry.
We're going with Wooden King today, trained by Malcolm Saunders, who can hardly be described as one of flat racing's big trainers. He doesn't have the largest yard: just 105 entries over the last 12 months and he's not exactly the most prolific with just 10 winners in the last year. His yard, however, seems to be coming into a bit of form, with a win, a place and a narrow 4th (lost 3rd place on the line!) in the last 3 efforts.
Two of those 3 runs were here at Bath: Malcolm's local course (his yard is only 20 miles or so away) and he has enjoyed a pretty good record for getting horses into the frame at this track, but without bringing home too many winners. His strike rate in these handicap races over the last couple of years here is just under 20%, which is respectable if not prolific: these wins have yielded a profit of over 52% on stakes. His place strike rate is decent too, with 43% of his entries making the frame, which makes an E/W bet an interesting prospect.
As I said earlier, he is only represented by Wooden King today: who has won twice over Course & Distance amongst eight career wins on ground deemed good or faster or on the all-weather. He likes the course and the trip and will appreciate a return to firmer ground than of late where he has struggled. Regular pilot Tom McLaughlin is on board today for his only booked ride at the meeting and Tom himself has a fine record in Bath handicaps: 21% wins (95% profit) and 53% placed.
Wooden King is currently best priced at 12/1 BOG with betVictor and at that price, he looks like a decent E/W bet. However, I recommend that you...
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