Stat of the Day, 5th November 2015
Wednesday's Result :
3.20 Chepstow : Sykes @ 5/2 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Held up towards rear, headway before 4 out, led before last, driven out to win by 0.75 lengths)
Thursday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Lavinia Rose @ 100/30 BOG
She's trained by Ralph Beckett who. as I constantly remind you is profitable to follow, is once again in good form, with 7 winners from 28 over the last fortnight, whilst his A/W charges are 5/14 in the last four weeks and in 2015, Ralph's horses are 3/14 (21.4% SR) for 14pts (+100% ROI) here at Chelmsford.
Lavinia Rose made the frame twice in three Class 5 5/6f maidens before being fairly well beaten last time out, although that was not only a step into handicap company at 6.5f, but also up three levels to Class 2. Dropping back to a Class 6 6f maiden should make life easier for her on A/W debut.
Which brings me to the headline stat that since the start of 2010, Ralph Beckett's horses making an A/W debut after 1 to 9 runs on turf, won that debut on 40 of 149 occasions (26.9% SR) for 134.8pts (+90.5% ROI) and that, allied to Ralph's own general recent and historical form should be enough to justify the selection here.
However, I couldn't resist taking a peek at those 149 runners to see if there were any angles of relevance/interest that might reinforce confidence and I found a baker's dozen of interesting subsets of data, all of which are valid today...
- those with just 1 to 4 previous runs are 37/126 (29.4% SR) for 145.9pts (+115.8% ROI)
- non-handicappers are 33/107 (30.8% SR) for 132pts (+123.4% ROI)
- those whose last run was 16 to 60 days ago are 29/101 (28.7% SR) for 154.9pts (+153.4% ROI)
- those who failed to make the first three home LTO are 23/97 (23.7% SR) for 140.3pts (+144.6% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 29/90 (32.2% SR) for 138.9pts (+154.9% ROI)
- in maiden races : 29/88 (33% SR) for 142.7pts (+16.1% ROI)
- female runners are 22/75 (29.3% SR) for 155.6pts (+207.4% ROI)
- over trips of 6/7f : 24/70 (34.3% SR) for 156.4pts (+223.4% ROI)
- when Ralph's only runner at the track : 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 34.1pts (+54.1% ROI)
- those beaten by 5 to 15 lengths LTO are 15/54 (27.8% SR) for 123.5pts (+228.7% ROI)
- when Ralph's only runner of the day : 11/38 (29% SR) for 24.2pts (+63.6% ROI)
- class 6 runners are 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 20.4pts (+85.1% ROI)
- those ridden by Richard Kingscote are 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 8.1pts (+90% ROI)
And my recommended bet?
A 1pt win bet on Lavinia Rose at 100/30 BOG with either of Bet365 or BetVictor. I've used Bet365 for my bet, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS