Wednesday's Result :
6.45 Chelmsford : Shaan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final 2f, headed inside final furlong, kept on one pace).
Thursday's pick goes in the...
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Full Intention at 9/2 BOG.
This 2 yr old colt was unlucky to be caught on the line on debut at Kempton 24 days ago, but he's sure to come on for having had that run and the only negative I see about him is that he'll have to overcome a poor draw. That said, there's lots of inexperience inside him and he could well pounce early.
He's by Showcasing, whose progeny have done well for this relatively new "father" and to date, his offspring are 111/790 (14.1% SR) for 144.2pts (+18.3% ROI) in the 25 months since his first runner. With reference to this contest, those 790 runners are...
- 73/443 (16.5% SR) for 163.3pts (+36.9% ROI) as 2 yr olds
- 62/428 (14.5% SR) for 117.7pts (+27.5% ROI) as males
- non-handicappers are 64/412 (15.5% SR) for 130.7pts (+31.7% ROI)
- those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 96/400 (24% SR) for 67.7pts (+16.9% ROI)
- in maidens : 45/296 (15.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+35.1% ROI)
- in races shorter than 6f : 43/237 (18.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+18.5% ROI)
- on good to soft ground : 17/95 (17.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+21.6% ROI)
In addition to the suitability of his bloodline for this race, he has the added benefit of the Richard Kingscote/Tom Dascombe combo and when Richard has ridden here at Chester for Tom over the last five seasons, they have combined for 20 winners from 129 (15.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.5pts at an ROI of 17.4% from blind backing and those numbers can be further refined in the context of this race, as follows...
- male runners are 15/95 (15.8% SR) for 17.8pts (+18.7% ROI)
- those sent off no bigger than 12/1 are 20/91 (22% SR) for 60.5pts (+66.5% ROI)
- in non-hcps : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 57.5pts (+104.5% ROI)
- those returning from a break of just 11 to 25 days are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 44.6pts (+99.1% ROI)
- 2yr olds are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 26.8pts (+62.4% ROI)
- those racing over this 5f trip are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 39.9pts (124.7% ROI)
I won't pretend I'm not a little concerned about the wide draw, but I do think we've been well compensated by the odds on offer, making this a risk worth taking in my book.
So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Full Intention at 9/2 BOG with either Hills or BetVictor, who had the standout prices at 6.25pm! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...
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