Stat of the Day, 5th May 2016

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Chelmsford : Shaan @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Tracked leader, ridden to lead entering final 2f, headed inside final furlong, kept on one pace).

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Chester

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Full Intention at 9/2 BOG.

Why?

This 2 yr old colt was unlucky to be caught on the line on debut at Kempton 24 days ago, but he's sure to come on for having had that run and the only negative I see about him is that he'll have to overcome a poor draw. That said, there's lots of inexperience inside him and he could well pounce early.

He's by Showcasing, whose progeny have done well for this relatively new "father" and to date, his offspring are 111/790 (14.1% SR) for 144.2pts (+18.3% ROI) in the 25 months since his first runner. With reference to this contest, those 790 runners are...

  • 73/443 (16.5% SR) for 163.3pts (+36.9% ROI) as 2 yr olds
  • 62/428 (14.5% SR) for 117.7pts (+27.5% ROI) as males
  • non-handicappers are 64/412 (15.5% SR) for 130.7pts (+31.7% ROI)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 96/400 (24% SR) for 67.7pts (+16.9% ROI)
  • in maidens : 45/296 (15.2% SR) for 103.9pts (+35.1% ROI)
  • in races shorter than 6f : 43/237 (18.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+18.5% ROI)
  • on good to soft ground : 17/95 (17.9% SR) for 20.5pts (+21.6% ROI)

In addition to the suitability of his bloodline for this race, he has the added benefit of the Richard Kingscote/Tom Dascombe combo and when Richard has ridden here at Chester for Tom over the last five seasons, they have combined for 20 winners from 129 (15.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 22.5pts at an ROI of 17.4% from blind backing and those numbers can be further refined in the context of this race, as follows...

  • male runners are 15/95 (15.8% SR) for 17.8pts (+18.7% ROI)
  • those sent off no bigger than 12/1 are 20/91 (22% SR) for 60.5pts (+66.5% ROI)
  • in non-hcps : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 57.5pts (+104.5% ROI)
  • those returning from a break of just 11 to 25 days are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 44.6pts (+99.1% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 26.8pts (+62.4% ROI)
  • those racing over this 5f trip are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 39.9pts (124.7% ROI)

I won't pretend I'm not a little concerned about the wide draw, but I do think we've been well compensated by the odds on offer, making this a risk worth taking in my book.

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Full Intention at 9/2 BOG with either Hills or BetVictor, who had the standout prices at 6.25pm! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th May 2016

  1. jethro

    He’ll need to be a very very good horse to overcome the outside draw over 5 furlongs on the tight turning Chester track Chris! I think I might just sit this one out for a change and if I am proved wrong, sobeit. Good luck all…

  2. jethro

    You could perhaps argue that the horse had to be given a bit of welly at the beginning of the race to get handy from the outside draw, meaning it didn’t have as much left at the business end. However the fact that the winner of the race was drawn right beside ours after the two withdrawals, means that it could have been won from a wide draw with the right horse! Looks like I just got lucky on this occasion – it wouldn’t have been the first time I’ve shot myself in the foot by ignoring your advice Chris! Another day tomorrow… Cheers

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      To be honest, I think you’ve nailed it there.
      Beaten by a better horse at the end of the day irrespective of draw.
      Frankie’s mount looked decent.

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