Stat of the Day, 5th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2014

A nice winner on Saturday was the perfect way to round off an excellent week, as Silk Sari came home in some style/comfort easing clear in the final furlong to win by over two lengths without being too troubled.

She ran like the 15/8 SP favourite that she was sent off at and despite a Rule 4 deduction taking a whole 25% of our winnings, we were still paid out at 15/4 BOG, exactly double the SP!

It's Bank Holiday Monday and the sun is shining (where I am, at least!) and there's lots of racing on offer. Unfortunately it looks like a case of quantity over quality and has the hallmarks of a typical Monday, but more of it! There's not a lot jumping out at me on the stats front, but I do have one with a chance if things go right in the...

5.20 Windsor:

Which is a Class 4 handicap over 11.5f on good to soft ground and David Elsworth drops the consistent Flemish School down in class in a bid to get her back into the winners' enclosure.

1. David Elsworth has a good recent record in handicap contests on the Flat and has a record of 27 winners from the 152 runners priced at 12/1 or shorter in the last three seasons. This 17.8% strike rate is more than respectable and has generated level stakes profits of 68.3pts or 44.93% of stakes invested.

2. He also has a decent record at Windsor too and if you'd backed every one of his 185 runners to have appeared here in the past, the 25 winners would not only have given you a 13.5% strike rate, but you would also have profited to the tune of 38.25pts, a return of 20.7% oof your stake money.

And whilst the strike rate in handicaps here at Windsor is pretty similar at 13.6% (14 winners from 103), the profits and subsequent ROI are greater at 38.76pts and 37.6% respectively. From this, the best results come in the 6/1 or under region, where we normally play, where you could have had 11 winners from 42 (26.2% SR) for 23pts (+54.8% ROI) profit.

3. Over the last three seasons, David has enjoyed some success when dropping horses in class and of those class droppers priced at 12/1 or under, the record reads 9 winners from 38 (23.7% SR) for 30.4pts (+79.9% ROI) profit, whilst at 6/1 or under, the figures are 6/22 (27.3% SR) for 10.1pts (+46% ROI) profit.

Flemish School may have only won one race to date, but has only failed to finish outside the first three home in one of her last nine races and whilst she has never competed over today's fairly unusual 11.5f trip, her record at 12 furlongs reads 222 with all three defeats coming by less than a length and a half and all three looking like she had nothing left to give late on. It's only a 100 yards or so shorter than those races here today, but that could well make all the difference late on for her.

Her sole victory to date was three runs ago, when wearing cheekpieces for the first (and only) time and they are being reapplied today in a bid to just get a little bit more from her in the closing stages, whilst the booking of William Buick is a positive sign for me here. William was one of the more successful jockeys at this track last season, winning on seven of his twenty-four starts at 8/1 or shorter, with that 29.2% strike rate yielding 21.15pts (+88.1% ROI) profit.

I've been more confident about other picks of late, but I think there could still be some value in a 1pt win bet on Flemish School at 7/2 BOG. That price is pretty widely available and I'm going with BetVictor today, but I strongly advise you to... here for the latest betting on the 5.20 Windsor

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Here is today's racecard.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th May 2014

  1. mozzer

    Flemish school is currently top price 9/2 with betfair sportsbook and will refund stakes up to £25 if 2nd to any ryan moore horse which is currently the fav in ths race

  2. jethro

    Brilliant Chris. I’m looking forward to the next selection when you actually are confident! Ha ha, Keep up the fabulous work… Cheers

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Ha ha! 😀

      The stats were good, but I had a nagging doubt when I wrote the piece.
      The nagging doubt, however, became a non-runner whilst I was writing. 😀


  3. Fatboyjim

    What a run, great stuff! Just shows if you have faith and can live with the occasional bad run it pays dividends in the long term.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers, Jim.

      That’s way Matt and myself look at it, too.
      We average 2 wins from every 7 selections over two and a half years now, so we know there’ll be crazy runs like this and also times like early March when I couldn’t buy a win.
      Play the long game.


  4. Fatboyjim

    One cheeky question, you seem to have so many profitable macro systems, such as Nigel Hawke the other day, have you thought about highlighting all the runners for these profitable systems? I one for one would be very happy to pay for such a service!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I haven’t given it too much thought as a whole concept, to be honest.
      Mainly because there are far too many potential qualifiers on a daily basis and this would put people off.

      I do however, have a project in the pipeline that myself and Matt are hoping to put together in the not too distant future and if it goes ahead, it will be made available to geegeez Gold members before a public launch.

  5. PauljD

    Superb race to watch with a fantastic burst at the end to kill off the opposition. Not being a big money punter I thought long and hard about Gold membership and took the plunge just in time to get the Lifetime Gold membership, since when the tips have been paying for themselves.
    As an example I had 20 minutes to spare before the race and after a quick look at the Race Cards for the 17:10 I got a strong feeling for Purple ‘N Gold (100% place record over distance, over 40% place record on course and class), cue a quick 7/1 winner to fill in the time!
    Always enjoyable reading, currently very profitable, thanks!

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