Stat of the Day, 5th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.40 Worcester : Three Colours Red @ 5/2 BOG WON at 9/4 (Chased leaders, closed after 4 out, 2nd before next, led flat, driven out for a relatively comfortable win by 2.5 lengths)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.00 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOG

In a 5-runner, Class 3 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £8715 to the winner... 

Why?

It's fair to say that this 5 yr old gelding was disappointing last time when when well beaten at Newmarket. it's quite possible that a third run inside five weeks was a step too far after nearly 7 months off the track, so I'm prepared to overlook that run, especially as he's finished as a runner-up in his previous four contests, all at a better standard than today's race.

He's now had nearly four weeks to recuperate from his latest effort and I'd expect a return to past form, especially as in Flat handicaps he has...

  • 3 wins from 10 (30%) for 0.23pts (+2.3%) plus four placed finishes in cheekpieces
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.03pts (+179%) at odds of 2/1 to 4/1
  • 4/7 (57.1) for 7.03pts (+100.4%) in fields of 8 runners or less, plus 2 places.
  • 3 from 3 (100%) for 7.23pts (+241%) in July/August
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.82pts (+94%) going left handed.

Today's jockey, David Probert, is red hot right now having won 7 of 19 rides (36.8% SR) over the past 5 days, whilst here at Epsom, he has an overall strike rate of 17% over 10 seasons (22/129).

And finally, to the trainer Paul Cole. Admittedly quiet so far this season, but the record books show that July-September are his better months for winning Flat handicaps, whilst since the start of the 2015 season, his 6/7 furlong runners are 26/162 (16.1% SR) for 168pts (+103.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • in handicaps : 17/92 (18.5%) for 60.6pts (+65.9%)
  • within 30 days of their last run : 14/90 (15.6%) for 81.6pts (+90.7%)
  • in July : 9/32 (28.1%) for 102.3pts (+319.8%)
  • ridden by David Probert : 3/8 (37.5%) for 24.4pts (+305%)
  • and here at Epsom @ 2/4 950%) for 19.3pts (+481.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Baron Bolt @ 11/4 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening, whilst Bet365 ( (the first to break cover) were going at 7/2 BOG for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th July 2018

  1. IanJLiverm

    Hi Chris
    Like most of the nation I watched the footie last night and somehow managed to consume rather a lot of alcohol whilst watching it and then decided to have another drink to celebrate. However, this morning I realised that I hadn’t done SotD last night so this morning I backed Three Colours Red at 9/4 with PP which wasn’t too far off the 5/2 advertised.
    However, I have just discovered that I had also backed it at 5/2 with Hills last night – just no recollection at all!
    Now that really was a nice little bonus!
    Can you make it three in a row?
    We shall see – good luck to all!
    Ian

  2. lazyhazy

    Great luck this Chris, how the hell it won after finding all that trouble I don’t know, maybe Geegeez own David Probert knew he needed to pull the win out! Well done on the Hat Trick after a difficult few weeks

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