Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014

Every man and his dog wanted to back Enquiring on Friday evening and we were all ultimately very disappointed by the way he folded very tamely a furlong from home.

That said, I hope some of you took my later advice and didn't back it, once the price became ridiculously short.

I'd like to remind you all of my attitude towards this SotD daily service. Yes, I want the horses to win, but they have to also offer some value. I took 9/2 about Enquiring, which I felt was a fair price. At his SP of 5/2 I wouldn't have been interested.

The records, however, will show a 1pt loss, irrespective of any discussion about odds. I've not been too impressed with the performances of my runners so far this month and I aim to set things straight in today's......

1.30 Sandown

Where I've just taken 4/1 BOG about Sir Michael Stoute's filly Royal Seal, who will be reunited with jockey Ryan Moore this afternoon.

Both the trainer (21.6% SR) and the jockey (21.9% SR) have performed really well here at Sandown over the last few years and both come here in generally good form. Sir Michael's horses are 6/21 in the last fortnight, whilst Ryan Moore is 6/17 in the last week alone.

Royal Seal was a winner two starts ago, before being raised to Class 2, which she found difficult and now drops back a grade to C3. Over the last four years, Sir Michael is 17 from 46 (37% SR) for 28.5pts (+62% ROI) profit with horses dropping down in class and priced at 6/1 or shorter.

When she won at Yarmouth two starts ago, that was a 7f contest, but her latest saw her run over an inadequate 5f and although she didn't get the run of the race and was outpaced at times, she stayed on well to get within 2.5 lengths of the winner. She is upped in trip today back to her preferred 7 furlongs and if we look at other 3yr olds stepping up in trip on the back of an unplaced run, we see the following...

126 of 801 (15.7%) 3 yr olds have won handicap races when stepped up by 2 furlongs and priced below 12/1 and who were unplaced last time out. The 126 winners have produced an overall profit of 185.9pts, or 23.2% of stakes.

Just over half of those runners competed at trips of 10f or shorter with 67 of 405 (16.5% SR) proving successful and recording profits of 140pts (+34.6% ROI) in the process.

And finally (from a stats point of view), Ryan Moore takes the ride again today, after being on board when Royal Seal won that maiden at Yarmouth, but he wasn't in the saddle last time out. Ryan is certainly one of the best around, so there's no insult intended when I suggest he might get a bit more out of this horse today.

In fact, over the 6 last seasons, when Ryan has ridden a Stoute-trained horse that he didn't ride last time out, but did ride 2 starts ago, he has 34 times of the 127 occasions he has been reunited with a horse he missed LTO. 34 from 127 is a 26.8% strike rate and has generated 65.4pts (+51.5% ROI) profit.

So, in short without any more numbers (!) we've a horse with proven form at the trip ridden by an inform jockey who has ridden her to victory previously. The jockey goes well here, as does the trainer in general and the trainer's yard is also in decent form.

All of which suggests we've a good chance of collecting from a 1pt win bet on Royal Seal at 4/1 BOG. I've placed my bet with Bet365, but I know of at least four other firms currently matching this price, as you'll see for yourself, if you just... here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Sandown

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Here is today's racecard.

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th July 2014

  1. Doshtosh

    We/I am ready to write in (not to criticise any of you guys) when a price is unobtainable, or if we were wondering why something wasn’t as we want/expect, therefore, on days like this, and there are so many, I want to write in to thank you, Chris and Matt, for a service, the likes of which I have never seen before, and if I wasn’t involved, thank God I am, I wouldn’t have believed existed. It’s not just the winners and profit, though they are no 1 but so much more on the web site and notifications to our emails. Thanks, so very much and have a great weekend. I hope we meet, someday, even if there will be sore heads the following day… my expense, it would be a pleasure.

  2. Brian Parker

    Well done, I backed Royal Seal because I follow you, but at some stage when your not busy could you take us through the reasoning behind picking it from all the races today.Why that race in particular when from the info. from the cards within the gold package I personally would have struggled to have picked that one.
    I’m certainly not grumbling just really interested.

  3. PauljD

    Having been out all day this was a “fire and forget” bet so a very pleasant surprise when I got to the results! Very nice drift as well. I note that the DD came in too although I missed that one, got yesterday’s though. Very well done and a big thank you for this week’s tips – I can’t believe you got some stick yesterday!

  4. RonCombo

    What a brilliant day on Saturday Chris. SoTD with a super drift and DD, all coming in as winners. Then I had De Rigeur (14s) from the Shortlist and Salvatore Fury (9/2) and Sandra’s Diamond (13/2), both from the Tracker system which I bought into. Thank you (yet again) GeeGeez!

  5. Fatboyjim

    Incredible stuff once again. Got to be the best value out there, I have finally learned how to use the race cards to suit my own style of punting and had some big winners over the weekend.

    If anyone remembers the SotD highlighted the Haggas/Hanagan a couple of weeks ago, well they certainly did the job yesterday. Also had Mister Wiseman today using the cards.

    Diamond in the service though is the wonderful SotD, brilliant. I use 2% of rolling bank and I am in dreamland.

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