Stat of the Day, 5th February 2014
It was a strange race yesterday, as Divine Intavention defied a nine-month absence to win by 23 lengths in a contest where only two of the six runners completed the course with a faller and three horses pulled up.
Two horses came out of the race whilst leading late on, whilst our selection weakened after a couple of mistakes and only got to 4 from home before it was decided to call it a day.
We'd taken 4/1 about an 11/4 shot, but that was scant consolation in the end and I strive for better today in the...
Mike Channon has had 12 runners here at Kempton in the last 12 weeks and of the 10 of them sent off at odds of 10/1 or under, five have won in a form line reading 9112351118 with a two from three record this month alone. That 5/10 record has generated 20.8pts profit from 1pt level stakes.
Mike has just one runner here in the shape of Amahoro who was last seen running on well to win a Nottingham maiden quite comfortably by 2.5 lengths.
In the last three years, winners of Nottingham maidens have done very well next time out, winning 23 of 94 races (24.5% strike rate) for a net profit of 17.1pts (+18.2% ROI) from level stakes at all odds.
If we imposed a higher end odds cap of 12/1, the figures become 19/73 (26% SR) for 31.65pts (+43.3% ROI), whilst at a maximum price of 6/1 (more in line with SotD general selection), we have 17 winners from 59 (28.8% ROI) for 22.8pts (+38.6% ROI) profit.
There have been 8 such runners here at Kempton and if we discard the one runner at 16/1, we have a record reading 2112214, with all seven horses sent off between 6/4 and 6/1, producing three winners and three runners-up for 4.7pts profit from the win bets.
Amahoro will be ridden by William Twiston Davies today, who'll be taking a useful 3lbs off what isn't too onerous a handicap mark to start off with.
In the last 4 years, Mike Channon has employed the services of a 3lb claimer in handicap contests on 187 occasions, resulting in 26 winners (13.9% SR) and 67.6pts (+33% ROI) profit. Here at Kempton, that record is 3/13 for 22.5pts.
If we looked at those races where Mr Channon has put a 3lb claimer on board a sub-8/1 runner, we see a 19.4% strike rate, courtesy of 19/98 record which has generated some 36pts profit at an ROI of 36.8%, whilst the record here at Kempton is 2/6 for 9.96pts.
I'm placing a 1pt win bet on Amahoro at 100/30 BOG with Bet365 today, but SportingBet are going 7/2 non-BOG if you prefer. As always, the best way to see what's on offer is to...