Stat of the Day, 5th February 2013
No excuses yesterday, as Luccombe Chine was nothing short of disappointing. She never got involved in the race, looked fidgety and unsettled from the off and didn't see out the trip. It's not often that John Quinn has a bad day at Doncaster, but yesterday wasn't great. Even Countrywide Flame's runner-up place in the preceding race was down to the distressing loss of another top quality horse.
Sedgefield has belatedly yet expectedly fallen foul of the latest batch of snow and with conditions looking grim (and worsening) at Market Rasen, we're taking refuge on the Nottinghamshire Fibresand for a nine-runner, six furlong, Class 4 handicap aka the...
Southwell racecourse makes a welcome return to the UK racing scene after an unfortunate absence of eleven weeks and it would seem almost churlish not to take the SotD roadshow there today. And our underlying stat is a little more left field than usual, as opposed to the usual trainer angles we explore.
Southwell's Fibresand surface is reckoned to be the closest approximation to the American tracks and looking back through the records, it seems that young USA-bred sprinters do really rather well here at this time of year.
The American-bred male sprinters (ie 5 to 7 furlongs) aged between 3 and 5 yrs old have won 12 out of 32 times here in February races since January 2010: an impressive 37.5% strike rate generating excellent profits of 39.8pts at SP (+124.4% return), whilst E/W backers have benefited to the tune of 48.7pts profit (76.1%), courtesy of 19 of those 32 runners making the frame.
These figures are further improved by eliminating any runners priced above 16/1, giving us a final analysis of 12/26 (46.15% SR) for 45.8pts profit (+176.2%) and the E/W returns are 19/25 (76%) for 60.7pts (+121.4%)
There is one such horse running today and this is our selection: Mazovian.
Mazovian loves running here at Southwell and has so far secured four victories from twenty-five Southwell outings. This 16% strike rate, whilst not exceptional, has been good enough to generate a modest 5.5pts profit and a course place strike rate of 44% has given E/W backers increased returns of 13.1pts.
It is, however, over today's trip that he seems happiest, as he has won twice with two placed finishes from nine attempts over course & distance, which has rewarded his followers with 10pts (111.11%) level stakes profit and the 44.44% place strike rate has earned E/W backers a4.5pts in the process (80.56%).
These are Mazovian's preferred conditions and he's on a handy enough mark, running off 69, just as he did when winning a handicap over course & distance back in July. He has put in a couple of decent efforts recently on the Wolverhampton polytrack, plus a third-placed finish on soft ground at Leicester showed that today's slower than standard ground shouldn't be too much of a worry.
The race looks an open affair and based on the stats available, I'd prefer the safer E/W option. The horse has already attracted some support this morning, having opened at 16/1 with BetVictor. The best available now is 10/1 non-BOG with SportingBet, but my call is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Mazovian at 9/1 BOG with Betfred (as of 11.20am), but you really should...