Stat of the Day, 5th August 2013
Third place was the best we could muster yesterday, as Serenity Spa was finally overhauled inside the furlong and was eventually beaten by just over a length. Unfortunately jockey James Doyle had lost his whip and this may well have cost him/us the race, but ifs and buts don't pay the bills and we'll never really know whether it made enough of a difference to the outcome.
We need to be a little philosophical in cases like this and take a defeat on the chin. We can, however, take comfort in how well she ran until that point and also in the fact that we got 4/1 about a n 11/4 shot.
Truly awful racing today, but the show must go on, as we attempt to pick the bones of the...
Where I'll cut straight to the chase and nominate Estinaad as a 13/2 E/W selection. This horse was available at 7/1 and 15/2 in the last half hour, so I'm putting it up straightaway, so we can all get a decent price on it. The 13/2 BOG is available with Paddy Power.
Estinaad is a three-year old bay filly who has yet to win a race in seven attempts for trainer Kevin Prendergast. She has shown glimpses of promise so far, but the trainer has been unable to get a win out of her. She finished 4th, 6th and 7th in three maidens, before being allotted an opening mark of 74 for her handicap debut.
It's not unusual for a horse to be unplaced in three maidens before going handicapping, but results in the two subsequent handicaps weren't much better after she'd been the runner-up on her handicap debut, with finishes of 6th and 8th.
All of this dropped her mark to 71, which she ran off last time out, back in maiden company at Gowran Park five weeks ago, when she was 5th of the 6 runners.
So, a form line of 4672685 from four maidens and three handicaps is hardly inspiring stuff, but...
...she has now switched yards and makes her debut for Brian Ellison today and he has a fantastic record of taking horses who have run in handicaps for other trainers and getting to fire on their debut for his yard. Since the start of 2011, he has given a start to 102 horses in handicap races that have raced at this level before. 28 of them have won on their debut for the yard, with that 27.5% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 66.8pts, an ROI of 65.5%.
If we then look a those horses with at least three previous handicap runs under their belts and priced below 8/1, we see an even better result: 26 wins from 70 (37.1% S/R) and 64.8pts (+92.6% ROI) with a total of 41 of the 70 making the frame for a place strike rate of over 58.5%, which is ideal for an E/W bet like today. In fact, backing the 70 horses E/W produced almost 64pts profit at SP.
Estinaad will be ridden by Miss J Lambert today, who will be able to take seven pounds on what already looks a fairly lenient mark of 70. I have no issues with backing a horse ridden by a 7lb claimer, as this race is for amateur riders only anyway. It should, however, be pointed out that Brian Ellison doesn't often use a 7lb claim for his horses, but in the last couple of years, he has a 20% strike rate with them and an ROI of 84.2% (4 winners from 20 for 16.84pts profit).
I think the extra weight taken off a fair initial mark could well make the difference today and Estinaad's breeding suggests she'll relish the prospect of stepping up to 1m 3.5f, a good couple of furlongs further than she's run previously. It does, on paper, look a fairly optimistic punt, but with the quality of racing being so low today, the possibility of Mr Ellison repeating his magic still makes Estinaad a decent E/W prospect at 13/2 BOG with Paddy Power. Who knows, she might even win! It will also be interesting to see how much support she gets in the market, after being cut from an overnight 10/1. You can, of course, keep yourself up to date if you just...