Stat of the Day, 4th May 2016

Tuesday's Result :

6.25 Catterick : Chilworth Bells @ 100/30 BOG WON at 2/1 (Chased leader, led over 3f out, pressed over 1f out, just held on).

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

6.45 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaan at 3/1 BOG.

Why?

There were a number of things that stood out to me about this one and sparked the interest. Firstly the horse caught the eye when being narrowly defeated on debut, getting collared late on to lose by a head at Kempton, before reappearing at the same venue to win by a length and a half.

She hasn't raced since, but he form has been franked by the runner-up winning since then and the third placed horse has won 3 from 5 after that outing. She was ridden by Sean Levey in both previous starts and with no disrespect intended, I see the booking of Frankie Dettori as a positive, especially when he's travelling here for just the one ride! And I suspect he'll be keen to improve his 23.3% strike rate (17/73) on the A/W since the start of 2014.

We should also consider Richard Hannon Jnr's record here at this relatively new track, where he averages a winner every 6 races near enough with 11 of his 67 (16.4% SR) representatives tasting success.

Shaan was sired by Ifraaj, whose A/W handicappers are 58/371 (15.6% SR) for 114.4pts (+30.8% ROI) since the start of 2014, with those racing over 7 to 9.5 furlongs winning 37 of 222 (16.7% SR) for 107.6pts (+48.5% ROI), whilst his 2 to 4 yr olds are 42/215 (19.5% SR) for 134.2pts (+62.4%ROI).

Ifraaj progeny aged 2 or 3 in A/W handicaps over 7 to 9.5f are 18/74 (24.3% SR) for 89pts (+120.3% ROI) since the start of 2014.

And finally, I should point out that this is Shaan's handicap debut and his trainer has seen his handicap debutants win 35 of 183 races (19.1% SR) in which they were sent off shorter than 12/1 and these runners have generated 44.3pts profit at an ROI of 24.2% to date.

Of those 183 runners, LTO winners are 14/72 (19.4% SR) for 22pts (+30.5% ROI) and those running at trips of 8 to 9 furlongs are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 45.5pts (105.9% ROI).

So, with with Shaan, there's no blockbuster headline stat for you, but I'd say there was more than enough circumstantial evidence to go on!

And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Shaan at 3/1 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook, who were the standout price at 6.00pm! To see what your bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 4th May 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. I think this is only located in the blog, rather than under “tips”. Betfair SB let me have a whopping 83p on, so I’ll wait to see how the market develops.
    Paul

  2. jethro

    Hey Chris – you’re actually starting to make inroads into the dozen winners you said you needed after Lightning Charlie’s win last Friday! Looks like your bad spell of luck with SotD may have turned too after Chilworth Bells just got up… Great stuff – keep up the good work!

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