Stat of the Day, 4th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2015

A bittersweet day yesterday, I'm afraid. Ginger Jack was held up for a run that he didn't seem to have in him and he was well beaten by the best part of 45 lengths, as he came home 5th of the 8 runners, despite being sent off as the 5/2 favourite.

The good news, I suppose is that by taking 3/1 we beat the book and also there is some consolation in the fact that the stats also pointed to a 7/2 Dalgleish/Renwick winner later on the same card.

Those of you who got on it, well done, these things do happen and I just take it as a revalidation of the stat work.

However, for SotD, it's another point lost, so we'll aim to recoup quickly in Wednesday's...

5.30 Lingfield:

And the 5/2 BOG rated Skidby Mill, about whom I can tell you that...

...his trainer, Laura Mongan...

...has saddled up 28 winners from 251 A/W handicappers since the start of 2009, with the 11.2% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 57.3pts at Betfair SP, which represents a 22.8% return on investments). For recently joined subscribers, I use betfair SP in my write-ups, as they're the nearest approximation I have to the BOG prices.

This 28/251 record can be broken down in a multitude of ways, but with today's race in mind, here's a couple of pointers :

at Lingfield : 16/11 (14.4% SR) for 30.1pts (+27.2% ROI)
over 1 mile : 6/53 *11.3% SR) for 11.7pts (+22.1% ROI)
priced at 10/1 or shorter : 24/124 (19.4% SR) for 77.3pts (+62.4% ROI)

In fact there are plenty of ways of interpreting the main stat, but you could consider that since the start of 2013, Laura's A/W handicappers priced at 8/1 or shorter over trips of 1m to 1m2f here at Lingfield are 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 36pts (+200% ROI) profit.

...today's jockey Megan Nicholls...

...is a very useful amateur jockey to have on board in this type of restricted race, as since the start of last year, her record in conditional/amateur races reads as 8 winners from 33 (24.2% SR) for 6.2pts (+18.8% RO) profit and if we discard the five losing longshot no-hopers she has ridden in such contests, we are left with a record of 8/18 (28.6% SR) for 1.2 pts (+40% ROI) on those horses priced at 10/1 or shorter.

...and the horse, himself?

Skidby Mill is a dual course and distance winner, who has finished third on each of his last two visits here. Both were over 7 furlongs when things possibly happened a little too quickly for him, but in between those two efforts, he was a winner at Kempton over today's trip.

Despite the unsuitable trip, he was only beaten by a neck and a head last time out and now runs off the same mark over his seemingly preferred 1 mile trip. And it should be noted that he's still running off a mark a pound lower than a course and distance win here last year.

We're not getting rich off the back of this one today, but I'd still expect a good run for my money from a 1pt win bet at 5/2 BOG on Skidby Mill, a bet I've placed with Bet365, but Paddy Power are currently offering the same price, whilst the rest of the bookies' odds can be seen (once available) if you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 5.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 4th March 2015

  1. catalta

    Appears to be a good thing. Have backed it 5/2 BOG.
    A half point bet on the previous race at Lingfield for the same trainer might be worthwhile.

    Chris A

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      An E/W bet on Lady Lunchalot wouldn’t be the worst decision you could make today but I’d fancy Sabre Rock to win that race.

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