Stat of the Day, 4th June 2016

Friday's Result :

4.55 Catterick : Best Trip @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Soon led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on but beaten by a length.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Moon River at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 4yr old filly has won 4 of 7 this year already and is 3 from 5 over this trip. She's won 1 of her two previous runs in this Class 3 grade, but has been running and winning off higher marks at a higher level than this in her recent past. She's turned back out down in class, four weeks after her last run and this is also a positive, as she has won 5 of 11 racing 14 to 31 days since her last run.

And although Doncaster hasn't been the happiest of hunting grounds for trainer Mick Appleby in general, his 4 and 5 yr old handicappers have more than held their own, winning 8 of 54 (14.8% SR) for 41.5pts (+76.8% ROI) profit here on Town Moor since the start of the 2011 season. Of those 54 runners, those turned back out after a break of 12 to 60 days are 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 59.5pts (+165.2% ROI).

Today's jockey Robert Havlin also reads the track very well, with a personal record of 12 wins from 52 here since the start of 2013 and that 23/1% strike rate has yielded modest profits of 9.12pts (+17.6% ROI) overall, but in handicap company he is 6/24 (25% SR) for 11.03pts (+46% ROI).

And now full circle back to the horse...

Moon River is dropping in class today and since the start of the 2011 season, Mick Appleby's Flat handicap runners dropping down a class or two are 30/216 (13.9% SR) for 80.2pts (+37.1% ROI), with the following of particular interest today...

  • those beaten by more than 2 lengths LTO are 27/179 (15.1% SR) for 98.1pts (+54.8% ROI)
  • those last seen 11 to 60 days ago are 26/144 (18.1% SR) for 118.6pts (+82.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 10/1 are 23/131 (17.6% SR) for 45.3pts (+34.6% ROI)
  • and those racing over 7/7.5 furlongs are 5/26 (19.2% SR) for 7.53pts (+29% ROI)

And a small, Appleby class dropper micro for your notebooks? Go on, then! Based around those parameters above, those now priced at 11/8 to 10/1, beaten by more than 2 lengths 11 to 75 days ago are 20/84 (23.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+78.9% ROI). Of the 84, those racing over 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 10/32 (31.25% SR) for 35.7pts (+111.5% ROI)

...and so the call today is...a 1pt win bet onĀ Moon River at 4/1 BOG with Coral, who were the standout of the majors at 6.05pm, although the smaller Netbet were matching this, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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