Stat of the Day, 4th February 2015
Bushel was second at Southwell on Tuesday, which on paper looks like one of our better results of late, but that doesn't tell the whole story. I'm not privy to how much Graham Lee earned from riding the horse yesterday, but I can safely say he earned every last penny.
Bushel was very slow away and wandered about early looking very reluctant to race. Graham had a constant battle to keep the horse from getting detached, until eventually (about 7f in!), Bushel settled down and got on with the job in hand, passing all bar one of his rivals to get upsides with a furlong to run.
He looked to have every chance, but has nothing left to give (probably due to being ridden for so long) and the winner pulled 12 lengths clear to leave us as 5/1 runners-up from what seemed a hopeless position for much of the race. Full marks to Graham Lee!
Still no jumps racing yet, so it's another A/W clash for Wednesday, and more specifically, the...
And an 11/4 BOG bet on William Haggas' promising 3yr old Squats, who drops down from Group 3 racing last time out to tackle this 5 furlong, Class 2 handicap.
His trainer, Mr Haggas...
...has a 129/589 (21.9% SR) record in handicap contests over the last 3 years, bearing 94.5pts profit at an ROI of 16%, which is pretty decent stuff. However, at the better end of racing and with reasonably fancied runners, he does far better.
In Classes 1 to 3 handicaps with runners priced 6/4 to 10/1 the record reads as 55 winners from 232 races, a 23.7% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 107.1pts at a tremendous ROI of 46.2%. Over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs, he is 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 14.8pts (+134.9%) in these higher grade races.
And our jockey is Joe Fanning...
...a master at assessing the pace of a race and someone who has a good record in these sprint contests. Since the start of 2011, HJoe has ridden 47 winners from 298 rides in 5f handicaps with that 15.8% strike rate generating 96.6pts profit at an ROI of 32.4% and when his mount was sent off in the 2/1 to 9/1 range, he won 40 of 165 (24.2% SR) and made 112.8pts (+68.4% ROI) profit.
And the horse, himself?
Squats' last run was in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes over today's trip where he finished fourth and despite being denied a clear run, was still only beaten by two lengths, so he was far from disgraced. Prior to that, he had lost a Listed race by just a neck, so he's certainly got enough quality to win here at Class 2 level.
He is actually, already 2/2 at this level , has a 311 record in all handicaps and has finishes of 41311 in races of 4 to 10 runners. Add this to his overall record of 2 wins and a place from 5 runs over today's trip, the only unknown quantity is whether he'll take to the surface. He has acted well on various ground types on the turf, so he's certainly adaptable, but the fact that this is his A/W debut is reflected in the price, I suppose.
On turf, he's probably be a pretty warm favourite, so there could very well be a bit of value in a 1pt win bet on Squats at 11/4 BOG. This price is pretty widely available and I've gone with BetVictor, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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