Stat of the Day, 4th February 2014
Our 16/1 shot Leith Hill Legasi could only finish 5th yesterday and whilst that doesn't look too bad a result from a long odds E/W bet, the truth is that he never looked like getting placed and the fact he finished 33 lengths adrift of the third-placed horse tells you more about how close he was to netting us some profit!
More soft ground action today, as we head to Lincolnshire for a more realistic proposition in the...
Steve Gollings' horses are going pretty well at the moment, even if they're not quite setting the world on fire. A strike rate of 20% over the month and some 53% of his runners making the frame isn't a bad return at all.
He has a good recent record here at Market Rasen. In the last two years, his jumpers (not bumpers!) have won seven of the fifteen races they've competed in, when sent off at odds between Evens and 6/1. That's an excellent strike rate of 46.7% which has rewarded his followers with a profit of some 22.62pts in that time: that's a return of 150.8% above stakes invested.
Steve has two runners here today: Ballinderry really looks up against it at 25/1 BOG in the 2.50 race, but our selection goes an hour later, when "The Champ" rides Honest John. Mr Gollings doesn't get to use the services of AP McCoy very often, but when they team up they have a great record together.
Since 2010, they have teamed up with 23 horses, netting 10 winners and 5 places for a win strike rate of 43.5% yielding level stakes profits of 16.9pts, or 73.4% of stakes. Their joint record here at Market Rasen is 3 winners and a place from 6 efforts for 6.38pts (+106.3% ROI). That's with no filters imposed or anything.
All 10 of those winners came from the 21 runners priced below 9/1, which improves the figures a little more and the record here reads 12411 for 7.38pts profit.
Honest John has already won a couple of races on soft ground in the past and although he hasn't actually won at today's 2m6.5f trip, he stays all day and has won at 3m and beyond in the past.
He looked to be getting back to his best form when finishing third at Doncaster over 3 miles five weeks ago, but was disappointing last time out at that same track three weeks later. He actually led for much of both od those races, but faded late on and the drop back in trip today allied to the booking of AP McCoy make this race a much more viable option for him.
We're able to get a decent price here today, thanks to the presence of Divine Intavention, who was runner up to Salsify in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham last year and is probably the best horse in this race. He has been off the track for almost nine months now and it's more than possible he'll need the run and has to go from the same mark as last time out when beaten at Fontwell.
All of which means that today's advice is a 1pt win bet on Honest John at 4/1 BOG with PP. BetVictor are also offering the same price, so why not...