Stat of the Day, 4th August 2016

Wednesday's Result :

5.20 Yarmouth : Sandy Cove @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (In rear and in touch, ridden over 1f out, kept on towards finish)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.25 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Choral Clan at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is in great form, with finishes of 1122 in his last four outings and only beaten by a head over this course and distance off today's mark last time out, eight days ago. It was a brave run, too, attempting to concede weight all round, including some 15lbs to the winner who overhauled our runner very late on.

That recent run of form makes him one of my "knocking on the door" horses, where I look for consistent runners who lost, but placed last time out. More specifically...Flat / 7f to 8.5f / April-September / 3-5 yr olds / top 3 finish in each of last three outings / 2nd or 3rd LTO 6 to 30 days ago.

Such runners are 190/846 (22.5% SR) for 252.7pts (+29.9% ROI) since the start of the 2012 campaign, with the following of note/interest today...

  • runners-up LTO are 114/471 (24.2%) for 172.9pts (+36.7%)
  • Class 5 runners are 78/267 (29.2%) for 83.1pts (+31.1%)
  • those beaten by a neck or less LTO are 21/127 (24.4%) for 65.3pts (+51.4%)

Further to this, he's a son of Oratorio, whose offspring are 103/880 (11.7% SR) for 640.8pts (+72.8% ROI) over 5.5f to 9.5f on the Flat since 2012, of which those reappearing after just 6 to 15 days are 39/257 (15.2%) for 528.9pts (+205.8%)

...and so, it's... a 1pt win bet on Choral Clan at 4/1 BOG from any of the half dozen or so firms quoting the same price at 7.50pm and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.25 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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