Stat of the Day, 4th April 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.30 Kempton: Shyron @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 11/2 (Towards rear with too much to do, ridden and ran on final furlong, nearest finish, lost by 3L)

Monday's runner goes in the...

3.30 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dawson City @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Well, we have days when there aren't many standout statistical qulaifiers for me to choose from and this is one of those days. However, I do have some tried and tested emergency backups to call upon and today's pick revolves around one of my favourite sires, Midnight Legend.

I've mentioned this one to you in the past and he's one whose offspring I like to back regularly, because they win and they make profit! In numerical terms, backing every one of ML's progeny in NH races since the start of 2008 would have seen you hit 459 winners from 3242 bets (14.2% SR) and a £20 level stake on each of them would have returned profits of some £11,794 or 18.2% of your stakes.

Of course,there's a distinct possibility, that you don't want 400 bets per year from one micro-system irrespective of its profitability and with such a large sample size, there are lots of different angles to use to reduce the number of bets. I'm going to list a dozen that are relevant tot his contest and then I'm going to give you a composite micro of around 30 bets per year for you to file.

So, of the original 3242 Midnight Legend progeny...

  • 5 to 12 yr olds are 406/2794 (14.5% SR) for 652.5pts (+23.4% ROI)
  • males are 269/1866 (14.4% SR) for 381.7pts (+20.5% ROI)
  • handicappers are 259/1731 (15% SR) for 544.9pts (+31.5% ROI)
  • those making their debut or who were top 3/PU LTO are 306/1727 (17.7% SR) for 619.5pts (+35.9% ROI)
  • on good to soft / soft ground : 215/1463 (14.7% SR) for 390.7pts (+36.7% ROI)
  • chasers are 193/1061 (18.2% SR) for 384pts (+36.2% ROI)
  • hcp chasers are 148/857 (17.3% SR) for 369.4pts (+43.1% ROI)
  • Class 3 runners are 94/529 (17.8% SR) for 309.4pts (+58.5% ROI)
  • in filds of 5/6 runners : 102/407 (25.1% SR) for 140.8pts (+34.6% ROI)
  • ridden by Andrew Thornton : 16/71 (22.5% SR) for 23.5pts (+33% ROI)
  • trained by Polly Gundry : 3/16 (18.75% SR) for 13.65pts (+85.3% ROI)

And that micro I promised you? 5-12 yr old male hcp chasers racing over 2m4f to 3m1.5f on ground deemed good or softer after a top4 finish last time out = 60/242 (24.8% SR) for 236.5pts (+97.7% ROI)

So the call is...a 1pt win bet on Dawson City at 11/4 BOG with Bet365 or any other of the half dozen or so firms matching this price, but to take your pick of the pack, you really should...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 4th April 2016

  1. Colin Barker

    I’m somewhat confused by your statement that Saturday’s GG Stat pick was second at 11/4 as according to the BBC Sport results it did not finish in the first three

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No need to be confused, Colin.
      I’d clicked the publish button by accident, before I’d finished adding Saturday’s details in.

      2nd at 11/4 was friday’s result

      1. Colin Barker

        easy mistake – I’ve done it myself – I miss the more personalised comments from yourselves however about how you feel the stat pick ran eg jockey fault, didn’t act on the going etc – I know results of late haven’t been as successful as in the not too distant past but a ‘winning run’ is just around the corner and the personalised feedback does give your followers reasons for poor performance of the horses rather than just the ‘official’ report of the run

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          It’s a difficult one, Colin. On a bad run (as I certainly am), it’s easy to find yourself becoming repetitive with tales of woe/bemoaning our luck etc. So I decided to remove personal feelings from the equation.

          However, if people want my opinion, I can always offer a short critique!

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