Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2012

Stat of the Day 3/9

Stat of the Day 3/9

Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2012

Efistorm was a disappointment to say the least yesterday. He was at the back of the field from the off and pretty much stayed there for the whole trip. He did briefly threaten to get on terms, but when push came to shove, there was little there. Today is a typical low-quality Monday, but we might just have something on the all-weather for you. It's a Class Handicap over an extended 2-mile trip and we're expecting nine runners in the...

5.00 Wolverhampton

Over the last couple of years, Brian Ellison's record at Wolverhampton has hardly ripped up any trees: a strike rate of just 12% returning a level stakes loss of 43pts is not something you'd crow about. Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has an even worse record here in that same time-frame: a 13% strike rate for a loss of 47pts. This is hardly inspiring stuff.

However, when Mr De Sousa rides for Mr Ellison on all-weather tracks, their stats are very good indeed: 7 wins and 6 places from just 16 races, bearing a level stakes profit of almost 18pts in the process. More pertinent, though, is their record here at Wolverhampton. They first teamed up here on 10th August 2011 for two rides (2nd and 1st), two more rides on October 7th (3rd and 1st) and then a break until 2nd July this year, when Majestic Breeze was a 10/1 winner.

So, it's a quite-rarely used combination that seems to deliver the goods: their record here is 12311 for 11pts profit and they team up again for two rides today. Titus Titan (6/1 generally) looks up against it today, but our selection: Looks Like Rain seems to have a very good chance of extending their run of form here.

This horse had run three times at 7 furlongs and then three times at 1m 4f for Michael Bell to little effect, he was then transferred to Brian Ellison's yard in July and immediately switched  to competing in 2-mile handicap races instead. The change in form was impressive with back-to-back runner-up positions at Beverley and Goodwood, staying on both times and the extra half furlong might just be enough to see her home today.

Looks Like Rain is currently best priced at 9/2 in several places, but as always, I recommend that you...

Click here for the latest odds for the 5.00 Wolverhampton.

11 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd September 2012

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers Bob,

      You’re quite right, it is an interesting one and that’s pretty much the aim of SotD: to find an overlooked angle. Neither jockey nor trainer are particularly successful alone, yet together they do well: it’s a strange one, I’ll give you that.

      Chris

  1. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Chris – just gone into my trusty P.P. account and see the rain came !! Many Thanks – you are some kind of wizzard with your picks.

  2. Chris Worrall Post author

    Titus Titan’s victory raises last week’s discussion again, where we talked about horses that didn’t quite make it as a SotD pick, but went on to win. We had several occurrences recently, plus the days where we chose the wrong horse from the right stat.

    To this end, I am trialling something called SotD Xtra over on the Geegeez forum, before going live to a larger audience. I’m hoping it will prove as successful as the main SotD, but only time will tell on that one.

    Saturday 1st September was Day 1 of my trial and I had a terrible start with no return from 6 selections, but today has already seen winners at 4/1, 5/1 and 9/1 as well as a 2nd at 7/1. And there’s still one to run later. Full details can be found here: http://forum.geegeez.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=175

    Chris

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