Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015

Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015

Monday's Result :

2.40 Ludlow : Ascendant @ 6/1 BOG : 3rd at 8/1 (Chasing leaders when in view after 2nd, led after 4 out, headed when in view last, lost 2nd close home)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

2.20 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vibrato Valtat @ 100/30 BOG

Why?

Rather than one headline stat to draw other details from, there are a few reasons behind this selection.

  1. Trainer Paul Nicholls' horses are in great nick at the moment, as typified by 13 winners from 35 (37.1% SR) for 12.62pts (+36.1% ROI) in the last fortnight. Today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies has ridden 7 of those winners from 21 attempts (33.3% SR) and Paul's chasers have contributed 7 wins from 19 (36.8% SR) for 8.85pts (+46.6% ROI) profit, with Sam riding 4 winners from 11.
  2. Sam Twiston-Davies' record in chases here at Exeter since the start of 2013 has 5 wins from 29 (17.2% SR) for 10.35pts (+35.7% ROI) with handicaps showing 4 wins from 25 (16% SR) for 13.11pts (+52.44% ROI).
  3. Since 2008, Paul Nicholls' Exeter chasers priced at 5/1 or shorter over trips of 2m4f and shorter are 20/47 (42.6% SR) for 12.2pts (+26% ROI), with those competing on Good to Soft/Soft ground winning 16 of 31 (51.6% SR) for 20.65pts (+66.6% ROI).
  4. On soft ground with chasers priced at evens to 10/1 the Nicholls/Twiston-Davies combo are 12 from 39 (30.8% SR) for 25.6pts (65.7% ROI).
  5. Vibrato Valtat seems to have an ideal profle for today's encounter, boasting a record of 6/18 in jumps contests (4/8 in chases) to date and with this contest in mind, his figures are...

    6/15 at odds of 5/1 and shorter (4/6 in chases)
    6/14 on ground good to soft or worse (4/7 in chases)
    6/9 in fields of 4 to 6 runners (4/6 in chases)
    3/8 going right handed (2/3 in chases)
    3/8 with Sam Twiston-Davies (2/6 in chases)
    3/8 on soft ground (3/4 in chases)
    2/3 in Grade 2 events (2/3 in Gr 2 chases)
    1/1 here at Exeter (no chase run here yet)

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet onĀ Vibrato Valtat at 100/30 BOG with Betfred / Totesport, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd November 2015

  1. keef7149

    Nice one Chris. I backed it with Hills and Corals, Corals paid me the 3/1 in full, Hills took 10p rule 4
    I checked the odds checker at the time I put my bet on with WH the non runner was a 9/1 chance with them 12 and 14 elsewhere. So in theory if a bookie has wind of a possible NR he can put it in shorter than the rest, then when it’s withdrawn take a rule 4 whatever wins. Technically cheating for me. What say you ?

  2. b8nd8r

    Lol cheers buddy I’ll try! Seriously though, I was chatting on the forum to the regulars regards my first year of following tipsters, and your good self has really made a difference to a sometimes challenging life, Mrs and I have used winnings at times for the little things, and sometimes it’s the little things that make all the difference. Never think it’s not appreciated by the quiet ones who take the tips, the winners and yes, the losers as that’s the way it is, and just get on with it day in day out, we do appreciate we are winning long term. Again, thank you. Dave.

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