Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

5.35 Brighton : Rastacap @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 6/1 (Led until halfway, soon lost place, eased over 1f out)

We continue now with Thursday's...

4.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG

An 8-runner, Class 4,  7f A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

He's a 3 yr old gelding who has won both his handicap starts to date, both here at Lingfield over course and distance and both under today's jockey Dan Muscutt.

His trainer James Fanshawe is well known for being successful on the polytrack at not-too-distant Kempton Park, but he has fared well here too in recent years, despite not sending many to this venue!

In fact, since the start of 2015, he has been represented just 31 times in A/W handicaps here, but with 9 winners (29% SR) generating profits of 11.44pts (+36.9% ROI), it has certainly been worth his (and his followers) time.

And with today's contest in mind, those 31 handicappers are...

  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 16.44pts (+63.2%) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 18.44pts (+76.8%) when running off a mark of 60 to 85
  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 17.1pts (+95%) from male runners
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 11.88pts (+84.9%) as 3 yr olds
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 9.76pts (+75%) when ridden by Dan Muscutt
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 10.3pts (+128.7%) over this 7f course and distance
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.17pts (+52.1%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.7pts (+46.3%) as LTO winners
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 6.79pts (+113.1%) at Class 4...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Insurgence @ 3/1 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Wednesday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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