Stat of the Day, 3rd May 2014
A bid for a four-timer was a race too far in the end for Tokyo Javilex on Friday and although he rallied and stayed on to pass a few runners and was arguably doing his best work late on, he was well beaten a long way from home.
He was easy to back all day and was eventually sent off at 5/1, quite a bit higher than my advised 7/2 and the market was proved correct, as fourth place was the best he could muster.
We can't win them all, of course, but I'll be wanting a winner today in the...
And the return of Luca Cumani's 4yr old bay filly Silk Sari, who takes a drop in Class for her first start in six months since a very creditable 3rd place in a Newmarket Class 3 handicap at the start of November last year.
Over the last four seasons, Luca Cumani has enjoyed considerable success when dropping his horses in Class, with 28 of the 100 class droppers going on to win. You don't need me to tell you that's a 28% strike rate, but it's worth knowing, as is the 85.4% ROI derived from the 85.4pts profits at all odds.
Of course, we don't back all qualifying runners from a stat and we prefer to be more selective, refining our selections via an odds filter. When we take an odds analysis of the 100 horses dropped in Class, we immediately see that the figures aren't skewed by a couple of big winners. These are the relevant figures refined by their Starting Prices:
With a 12/1 odds cap: 27/83 (32.5% SR) for 85.16pts (+102.6% ROI)
With a 6/1 odds cap: 20/54 (37% SR) for 43.33pts (+80.2% ROI)
With a 4/1 odds cap: 14/34 (41.2% SR) for 21.56pts (+63.4% ROI)
I said that Silk Sari hadn't run for six months, but that's not a concern to me, as Luca Cumani's horses have continually run well after a fairly lengthy lay off. In fact, over the last five seasons, his yard's record with horses returning from a break of four months or longer is 51 winners from 197 runners and the resultant 25.9% strike rate has generated 103.9pts profits, a return of 52.8% above stakes invested.
As with the class droppers, the validity of this stat can be reinforced by another analysis of the odds to show the consistent returns the Cumani returners have achieved.
From the original stat of 51/197 (25.9% SR) for 103.9pts (+52.8% ROI), we have the following...
With a 12/1 odds cap: 45/154 (29.2% SR) for 91.91pts (+59.7% ROI)
With a 6/1 odds cap: 38/103 (36.9% SR) for 70.02pts (+68% ROI)
With a 4/1 odds cap: 32/62 (51.6% SR) for 68.20pts (+110% ROI)
Silk Sari has a win and a place from her three outings on turf to date and assuming she's ready to fire first time out this season, this represents a weaker contest than her last two races. She's currently available at 5/1 BOG in a couple of places, but I wouldn't be surprised if that shortened considerably by the off time.
So, for me, it's a 1pt win bet on Silk Sari and I'm on at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. If you want to see who else is matching that price...
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