Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2017

Thursday's Result :

5.25 Newcastle : Dark Side Dream @ 4/1 BOG u/p at 5/2 report to follow

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Beggars Cross 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding returned to form at Doncaster LTO, winning over 3 miles 22 days ago to take his 6-race formline to 145441.

Trained by Jonjo O'Neill, whose record with handicap chasers who won LTO within the previous 30 days stands at 36/143 (25.2% SR) for profits of 20pts (+14% ROI) with runners priced at 12/1 and shorter. And from these 143 LTO winners...

  • those racing over 2m2f to 3m1.5f = 31/113 (27.4%) for 30pts (+26.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.5pts (+51.1%)
  • and those racing on Good to Soft ground are 7/26 (26.9%) for 23.1pts (+88.6%)

AND...more generally since the start of 2010 in UK NH handicap chases, runners priced at 11/8 to 11/1 running within 11-25 days of an LTO win that was preceded by a run of 3 or more unplaced efforts are 17/517 (22.6% SR) for 126.1pts (+24.4% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • males are 112/484 (23.1%) for 136.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 6 to 11 yr olds are 114/478 (23.9%) for 153.4pts (+32.1%)
  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f are 90/366 (24.6%) for 136.1pts (+37.2%)

WHILST...6 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f are 84/318 (26.4% SR) for 157.6pts (+49.6% ROI) and in the interests of showing I'm not relyin on old data to skew the figures, since 2014, these runners are 38/136 (27.9%) for 74.2pts (+54.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Beggars Cross 7/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & Hills at 8.35pm on Thursday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2017

  1. Llahsnim

    I’ve backed all the SToD’s since I joined geegeez, but against my better judgment I backed Beggars cross, I just don’t trust John jo O’Neill, if that horse won22 days ago I don’t think it’s been out of the box since, just wait for Cheltenham and aintree his horses will run upto form or above, but the rest of the year his horses are very iffy.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Monty

      You can back, or not back, any horse you like any day you like. Stat of the Day’s record is there for all to see. Feel free to dip in and out when you want, and I wish you all the luck in backing the winners and dodging the losers! 😉

      Have a great weekend, and hit some scores!

      Matt

  2. Llahsnim

    Hi Matt, I wasn’t commenting on the stat I think it’s very good, it’s just going against what I normally do and backing an O’Neill horse.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      No problem at all. I was trying to highlight – in a clumsy way, granted – that the results are achieved backing against a lot of personal biases over time. Anyway, as I say, no problem, and good luck this weekend.

      Matt

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